Prophetic news commentary

World food in crisis

2008-04-25T00:14:00.000-07:00

A unit of wheat for a Denarius, three units of barley for the same – a world food crisis, is coming.

James issues a prophetic warning to the rich (I am not opposed to wealth as such, nor do I despise the rich per se, so here I refer to exploitation as that is the context of James’ message).

He says in James 5:2, “Your riches have rotted and your garments are moth eaten. Your gold and silver have rusted away.”

Never has this prophesy been more relevant than today. The black, third horse of the apocalypse, described in Revelation 6:5, comes onto the world stage carrying a scale, to measure out barley and wheat against Denarii (Roman money, a symbol of world money and its role in food trade).

In the past week a report appeared in local newspapers about the growing shortage of world maize stocks, because of the high opportunity costs of maize in the burgeoning bio-fuels industry. Producers can achieve 3-4 times the profit margin of food-maize and they are fast switching to that market. It is a simple fact of economics that if you can get a better price in an alternative market that is the market most will follow.

This is hurting poorer nations and the poorer they are, the harder they will be hit, for maize is staple to many poor nations. The price of maize has trebled in recent years, impacting heavily on those debt-ridden, marginal economies where the bulk of humanity lives (or exists). What is really tragic is that the poor nations cannot even participate in the economic opportunities that higher prices bring, because rich nations subsidize domestic production. This makes it unviable for the vast tracts of arable land in poorer nations to be developed to their potential as a global bread-basket.

The switch to bio-fuels is partly driven by environmental concerns although world hunger could devastate the global environment (hungry people will destroy society and the environment, whilst increasing the welfare burdens of the world). The more imminent driver of the shift to bio-fuels has been the steep increase in world oil prices, from around $30 per barrel at the turn of the decade to over $100 today. It is now a simple reality of survival for the rich nations. They cannot sustain their own economies, let alone feed the poor nations, without the life-blood of all modern economies: energy.

The oil issue is also threatening to push Mid-East tensions over the threshold because the opportunity cost of peace and stability is becoming too high in the face of rising demands for oil, aggravated by the threat of political opportunism. In simple terms the cost of fighting for Middle East oil is now being offset by the economic value of oil at its current market price and the cost of peace-keeping is being eclipsed by the value of winning the world’s most valued prize. Economics is simply driving the world to a fait accompli.

Russia and China are both pulling strings in the Middle East to secure their stake in oil markets and to exploit regional dynamics to advance their strategic ambitions. This reality is drawing the world powers into an inevitable clash on the plains of Megiddo where the last great World conflict is destined to happen. I suggest that Armageddon is no longer a far off figment of movie-maker’s imaginations, but an imminent threat to world peace.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

US buildup against Iran?

2008-04-08T00:19:00.000-07:00

Is the US preparing for war against Iran and would she be able to respond to any preemptive threats?

A brief misreport of a buildup of US forces along the Iranian border, presumably due to a typographical error on the part of a reporter, sent minor shock waves through the newswires. The report related to a 2007 event.

However, there is no doubt that the US has been bolstering its Iraqi presence. US commanders have strongly confirmed that this will not be diluted in the foreseeable future. There is nothing sinister in this for the US recognizes the need for military power to restrain subversion and terrorism. Withdrawal would almost certainly plunge the Iraq and the region into calamity, reversing all the gains made by the US thus far.

Nonetheless, presidential candidates in the current White House race, have hotly debated and even promised a review of troop deployments in Iraq. This brings a degree of uncertainty to a troubled part of the world at a time when the US military presence in Iraq continues to provide a vital restraint to Iranian aggression.

Israeli intelligence believes that Iran has acquired nuclear technology from North Korea and the Israeli defense force has made it very clear that if the threat to Israel becomes untenable, appropriate military action will be forthcoming.

The vulnerability of Israel and the ongoing support of Iraqi terrorism by Iran, combined with world concerns about Iran’s nuclear program, make it difficult to rule out future military action. Last year, Pentagon spokesmen indicated that action could start in the first or second quarter of 2008: naval exercises confirmed US preparedness.

What is worrying though, is that circumstances could favor a preemptive move on the part of a Russian-backed Iran. The US may be very vulnerable in the run up to elections, due to political distraction. Americans have also got other distractions, with an economy that is now so contracted that food stamp issues are at their highest since the 1960’s. In addition, there is evidence that at least half of the US F-15 strike capability is grounded due to mid-air failures and the much-vaunted F-22 program seems to have hit a mountain of snags that threaten to delay the roll-out of the air-superiority fighter. Besides anything else, the huge cost of ongoing militarism in Iraq and Afghanistan is becoming prohibitive to a cash-strapped economy.

In contrast to all this, Russian imperialism is surging and cold-war postures are evident. Russia is also facing an economic windfall from oil prices, which have again surged to $109 per barrel. Putin, who had to stand down and make way for a new president, due to constitutional requirements, retains a significant grip on power that is worrying and frustrating to US policy makers. Russia is also increasing its military capabilities, testing its technologies and, unlike the F-22, its own Mig-35 air-superiority fighter is alive and well, flying high in both Russia and India (licensed to build F-35’s).

So the mid-east remains on the edge and the threat of an unexpected or foolhardy incident in a very dry tinder-box, hangs like the sword of Damocles over the whole region.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

Here we go again

2008-03-29T04:36:00.000-07:00

Concerns about the nuclear activities of rogue states risks triggering fresh waves of proliferation.

Ever since Gorbachev introduced Perestroika, the world has come off the nuclear brink and greatly reduced its nuclear stockpiles. Although rogue nations have been building new arsenals, only the big six nations retained reduced stockpiles of fusion weapons.

Fission weapons are held by a number of smaller nations, including rogue states. Whilst they may do a lot of harm, they are generally tactical weapons with limited, kiloton yields, comparable to what destroyed Hiroshima. Fusion weapons, on the other hand, can deliver megaton yields. The largest ever US detonation was 15 megatons, but the Tsar Bomba weapon detonated by the Soviets, with a design capability of 100 megatons, delivered a 50 megaton test yield to make it the largest ever nuclear detonation.

The atmospheric detonation of the Tsar Bomba was large enough to make a deep crater of 1km2 that is still visible on Google Earth. It would have caused 3rd degree burning up to 100 kilometers away, with signification fallout across inhabitable areas.

New entrants to the nuclear club include Pakistan, India, North Korea and potentially Iran (North Korea claims to be building a Fusion weapon). The introduction of nuclear arms into the Islamic axis portends a serious shift in the delicate balance of power that has kept the Middle-East from disaster for over four decades. During that period a number of radical leaders have come and gone, including Khomeini, Hussein and Nasser, whilst Arab nations aligned with the Soviets, against Israel, in the four post-independence wars.

Iran is now advancing its own nuclear program as a front for Russian expansionism. This threatens to bring the world back to the nuclear brink. As Israeli leaders recently observed, Iran is nearing a point of no return where military options will be limited. Once armed, Iran would have the dangerous mix of lethal power and reckless leadership that could change the status quo in the Middle East and spearhead a potent Islamic alliance.

I don’t begrudge Islam’s need for an alliance – after all Europe has formed its own union and North America has NAFTO, whilst Western nations have long colluded via NATO. Alignment is about survival, economic participation and mutual defense against common threats. An alliance could well serve to bring rogue states to order and facilitate more effective dialogue. However, if such an alliance is vulnerable to the manipulation of powerful opportunists, like Russia, it could become a dangerous instrument.

Of more immediate concern is that western nations have become worried enough to review their own defenses. French President Nicolas Sarkozy launched France’s fourth ballistic missile submarine, Le Terrible, last week. At the launch he pledged to maintain a strong nuclear weapons program in order to defend his country against the threats of a nuclear-armed Iran. Sarkozy said, “While only major powers have nuclear power and the ability to reach remote targets, countries in Asia and the Middle East are conducting a “forced march” to acquire ballistic missile capabilities. Iran is also increasing the range of its missiles whilst grave concerns hang over its nuclear program”. (Reuters: France’s Sarkozy vows strong nuclear policy, 21 March, 2008).

In recent years, the US has been reconfiguring its own strategic submarine fleet to carry tactical weapons, but the return to cold war postures by Russia and reciprocal responses across the NATO alliance, threatens a renewed wave of nuclear rearmament. Indeed, the US is now talking about designing new nuclear weapons. This signals a dangerous trend in world affairs, because it puts the entire planet at risk.

The greatest risk, perhaps, is not that Iran may acquire fission weapons, but that they might trigger a runaway crisis through misguided use of a very dangerous weapon of war. Israel does have fission weapons, so does Russia, but other strategic stakeholders in the region could also be pushed over the edge by what might be a relatively small incident. The bible predicts that such events would lead to a world-class conflict on the plains of Megiddo: Armageddon is no longer a far-fetched, distant possibility.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

A world on fire

2008-03-21T04:20:00.000-07:00

Who started the fire? Billy Joel? Marilyn Monroe? All I want to know is how we plan to stop the fire.

In recent weeks I have reported on the increasingly dangerous stance of Iran, Syria and the Palestinian occupied territories. I have shown how Russia is not only returning to her cold War stance, but is also pulling strings in the Middle East.

These developments are have dangerously swung Islamic fundamentalism from a North-South axis (Iran to Libya) to an East-West axis that stretches from the gates of China, in Afghanistan, to the borders of Israel. Revelation 9:16 predicts that 200million horsemen (of China), will take that route across the Euphrates, into the plains of Megiddo.

Coincidentally, the US economy is also worrying vulnerable. The recent fire sale of Bear Stearns is just the tip of the iceberg. Sub-prime issues have recently led to fiscal alleviation of distressed homeowners, federal support of the financial system, a sharp drop in interest rates and now a 75 point drop in Fed investment rates. At the same time the US deficit is at or near the $10trillion level, exceeding 75% of the US GDP - but as recession bites the gap will narrow even further. Of course the US government remains deeply perturbed about a Mid-East meltdown and has committed additional resources to Iraq and Afghanistan whilst trying to restrain Israel from a preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear threat, but with so many domestic distractions, can she follow through?

Russia is shrewdly pulling strings without risking a direct regional confrontation with the US, but while she is strengthening her strategic position, she is also carefully selecting a ripe moment to seize the initiative and pounce on the opportunity to secure a significant stake in the Middle-East. To make matters worse, Russia has experienced a windfall from soaring oil prices, which has boosted her swagger: resulting in some significant saber-rattling including an upcoming May-Day military parade.

Now add to this heady mix the fact that China, on the other side of the Hindu-Kush gateway to the region, is significantly strengthening her military prowess whilst asserting her might against Tibet and Taiwan.

Slap bang in the middle of all of this, is a moderate Islamic state with a large nuclear missile force and an even larger political crisis.

President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan still retains power, but a new prime minister is about to be announced by the late Benazir Bhutto’s son. A four-party coalition has determined who will lead the incoming administration, but the honeymoon will be over shortly after the marriage has been consummated. This will being a serious reality check to a nation besieged by terrorism, chronic energy issues, rising fuel prices, the grounding of national carrier planes, galloping inflation and the rise of the Taliban.

Other threats loom over Pakistan. Ghandi once predicted that four conflicts would haunt the region, following the 1947 partition of India and Pakistan. Three have already come and gone, each engaging a million men or more and accounting for major casualties, especially in Pakistan. Pakistan built up her nuclear capability to match India and now finds herself facing the kinds of internal conflicts that could trigger the last and greatest conflict. Musharraf’s tenuous hold on power is barely keeping the peace in a politically volatile region under threat from fundamentals, who resent India, the US and everyone else, just as Germany once resented the axis powers.

The Taliban, once the popular savior of an Afghanistan reeling from years of Soviet oppression, festered under misguided US foreign policy, to assume power of that country for five years. After Bush’s initiatives against the “axis of evil”, the Taliban declined, but then resurged in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, to become a key link in the emerging East-West, Islamic fundamentalist axis.

Russia is carefully manipulating the axis, using the levers that both unite and inflame Islamic fundamentalism: Anti-Israel and Anti-US sentiment.

The First World War was a dry tinder box waiting for some nut to start a fire, until the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand initiated the chain of events that brought the axis powers to war with Germany. Four years later millions lay dead in military graves across Europe and Germany was manacled by the Versailles treaty. The resulting resentment stirred in German hearts for another 27 years before the world found itself once again at the brink of war. Once again a single, misguided and tactically imprudent act, on the part of the main protagonist, resulted in war: only it was a far more deadly, six year affair.

Now the board is all set up again, with all kinds of forces circling the strategic opportunities prevailing in the middle-east. This leaves us with the question: what nut or foolish incident will light the fire and trigger the domino effect that will bring the world into a terrible meltdown in the Middle-East? My only answer is that, aside from the likes of Ahmadinejad, there are many factors and more than enough crazies capable of starting a conflagration, not the least being the ripeness of the moment.

© Peter Eleazar at http://www.bethelstone.com/

Taliban backlash against US activities

2008-03-16T09:45:00.000-07:00

The rise of the Taliban, as an Islamic extremist movement, was largely instigated by US activities.

Russia invaded Afghanistan in 1979 and maintained a repressive occupation of the state for the next nine years. They fought furiously against the Mujahideen, whilst the US poured millions of Dollars of arms into the war-torn region. That was where the stinger missile was battle-proven, as the Mujahideen used it and other US arms so effectively against Russian aircraft and armored gunships.

Russia was finally driven back, leaving Afghanistan in a state of ruin. America’s own objective had been to deter Russia from interfering in US interests in the Middle East, without any real regard for Afghans. President G W Bush tried to balance forces in the region by supplying military and humanitarian aid to both sides of the internal conflict. Besides internecine conflict amongst the Mujahideen, criminal gangs operated in the power vacuum, using the status quo to open up their supply lines into the Middle East.

Unfortunately, Bush was soon to be distracted by other more pressing issues, notably Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and the Iranian revolution. The latter deposed the CIA-backed Shah of Iran, with an extremist order led by the Ayatollah Khomeini. That marked the end of direct US influence over Iran and the start of a long-term standoff that eventually brought Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power. He is a religious politician with dangerously fanatical anti-US and anti-Israel leanings, partly a backlash against years of oppression under the Shah. He is also working hard to equip that country with nuclear weapons, to fulfill his dark ambitions for the destruction of Israel: which of course could significantly advance his personal ambitions.

Back in Afghanistan, conditions deteriorated sharply after Russian withdrawal, until a conservative local Muslim leader, Mullah Omar, decided that enough was enough. He was determined to rid his country of criminals and thugs and the incessant fighting between Mujahideen warlords.

Successful suppression of crime and in-fighting boosted his popularity and brought many Afghans on to his side. This gave impetus to his Sunni/Pashtun nationalist movement, the Taliban, which eventually ruled Afghanistan for five years. Omar provided education and upliftment to his people, but he was also fanatically fundamentalist, partly inspired by the activities of Khomeini just over the border.

Consequently, the Talib or Taliban (which effectively means “disciples”... of Islam), implemented the most extreme interpretations of the Q’uran and Sharia law, bringing great misery to many Afghani’s, especially women. The movement also enjoyed support from the ISI (Pakistan intelligence) and Pakistani president Ul Haq, whilst its ranks were swelled by Pashtuns from western Pakistan. Pakistani support became a breeding ground for Pakistani Taliban fighters and Islamic extremists, the source of current terrorist activities in that country. These factors were largely instrumental in bringing General Pervez Musharraf to power as a pro-US, anti-fundamentalist strongman.

At the time another major player in Mid-East and world affairs, who had successfully targeted US missions and embassies elsewhere, found himself homeless after having been kicked out of Saudi Arabia. Osama bin Laden found solace amongst the Taliban. In the remote hills of Afghanistan, he began plotting his most ambitious attacks against the US, leading to an attack on the world trade centre and the subsequent 911 disaster.

The US retaliated and largely destroyed the Taliban, but they had already become too extensively organized to disappear. They had become a major force in the region and soon regrouped as a dangerous Afgani-Pakistani terrorist grouping that has been responsible for widespread and lethal bombings in both countries.

The Taliban are rising again at a time when Iran and Pakistan are in a state of political flux. Iran is heading towards a dangerous, Russian backed confrontation of the US and Israel, whilst Pakistan struggles with its own internal political problems.

It is not impossible that Pakistan will eject General Musharraf, which would remove the greatest ally the US has in that region in the fight against the Taliban. But even if Musharraf survives, there is a growing risk of a fundamentalist surge in the region that could eventually trigger a meltdown across the region.

The ties between the Taliban and Ahmadinejad’s extremism are obvious and they are encouraging each other to forge a united front against US activities in the Middle East. Pakistan has even reduced its military role in the region because it believes that the Taliban is becoming a significant force.

Russia is pulling strings behind the scenes, eager to hurt the US for the embarrassment they suffered during their unpopular occupation of Afghanistan. But Russia’s objectives exceed mere retribution and her motives for originally invading Afghanistan are still relevant as she seeks to establish a significant strategic foothold in the Middle East. The big difference now is that the pendulum is swinging in their favor whilst the US stumbles and anti-US sentiments give Russia the backing she needs to further her own objectives.

The world stands at the threshold of a staggering crisis, largely initiated by misguided US foreign policy, particularly at the hands of two Bush administrations.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

And I saw a beast arise

2008-03-13T07:57:00.000-07:00

I saw a great beast, with ten horns and seven heads, rise from the sea out of its own mortal ruins.

The origins of the European Union trace back to 1951, when the European Iron and Steel community formed an alliance with the founding members of the union.

Later events, such as the Maastricht treaty, introduced new member states, but the UK only joined in 1973 after relaxation of a ban originally determined by Charles de Gaulle.

The original concept of the union was cooperation between member states with a view to creating a new trade bloc. It was not intended to restrict member states from their own trade practices, but to collaborate for mutual benefit.

Over the years the union has elaborated into a sophisticated pan-European organization with common currency and citizenship status across a borderless Europe. Britain’s late entry has left them holding onto their own currency, which has turned out to be a blessing in disguise: it may permanently preclude them from currency integration.

The problem with the EU is that bureaucrats have learnt to harness the beast and manipulate its enormous power. Some of that bureaucratic power is wielded in the most pedantic ways as when UK grocers were recently sued for selling bananas that were either not bent enough or bent too far.

Unfortunately, the union has restricted democracy and member states are being forced to toe the line, leading to a very centrist political context. This is unfortunate, because European farmers are largely inefficient, but Europeans are nonetheless obliged to pay premium prices in a restricted market instead of enjoying the free-market efficiencies of open-trade: which would also help to uplift many poorer countries.

The bible predicts the emergence of a final world power, comprising ten nations rising out of the sea (the nations or peoples) and comprising ten horns and seven heads. It is described in Revelation 14:9-10, the way that a bear symbolizes Russia or an Eagle symbolizes America. Thus it has the body of a leopard, the feet of a bear and the mouth of a lion, suggesting a power that would exceed, yet synthesize, the great empires of Greece (Leopard), Russia (Bear) and Britain (Lion).

The ten nation confederacy may refer to earlier membership of the EU or to the historic national boundaries of Europe. It could also refer to the United Nations, which Prime Minister Gordon Brown hopes to reform, by increasing permanent member status of the Security Council, to ten.

There are other schools of thought about all of this, but my own view is that the final, anti-Christ, one-world government will be European. This is because the vision given to Babylonian King Nebuchadnezzar and interpreted by Daniel, suggested that the ten horns of the final world power would emerge out of the two prongs of ancient Rome. They would consist of iron mixed with clay, reflecting the humanism of the renaissance and the power of Rome (including the successive Holy Roman Empires).

The two great wars of history were contested in Europe, but the current EU model has peacefully co-opted former adversaries into an affiliation that places the great lion, Britain, in the same seat of authority as her traditional enemies: Germany and France. The other key consideration for a European seat of world power is that the Catholic church of Rome, once so totalitarian in its hold over Europe, is the most likely spiritual consort of the emergent world order. The bible refers to the spiritual arm of the new world order as the false prophet, as it will be used to sway the masses and manipulate their support for antichrist. The seven heads of Revelation 14 may refer to the Seven Hills of Rome.

It is no coincidence that the Euro is fast emerging as the world’s next reserve currency as it has continued to out-muscle the Dollar for top-dog status. It is a very powerful currency, vested across a diversified economic base and founded on some of the world’s most powerful economies (Germany, France, UK).

The seat of power at the pinnacle of this awesome beast is already emerging. Tony Blair is vying for election as the first president of Europe. I don’t think he is the antichrist, but he may well have to warm the seat and smooth the way for the ultimate supreme leader. The time for these events is not far off and other world-related prophecies are in an advanced state of fulfillment. Never has the world known such a heady time as this. We are living in the last days of grace facing the imminent return of Christ.

The world is in turmoil. Financial, economic, political, climactic and physical events are now reaching a climax as prophetic events race towards the final showdown on the great plains of Megiddo.

© Peter Eleazar at http://www.bethelstone.com/

The red horse is also coming

2008-03-12T04:56:00.000-07:00

Prospects for a major melt-down in the Middle-East have gathered momentum, following recent events.

Israeli Chief of Staff, General Ashkenazi has warned of a coming ordeal in their standoff with Iran, after Iranian leaders upped the ante in ongoing anti-Zionist rhetoric. They have been delivering significant insults to the Jewish state, whilst claiming to only have peaceful nuclear ambitions.

It is worth repeating that the IAEA is concerned that Iran has continued its complex uranium enrichment program, but it could weaponise cumulative stockpiles relatively quickly. In the light of this, Israeli military leaders are planning a quick action against Iran, in the event that the US fails to protect her against the Iranian nuclear threat. The US is currently holding back because of UN opposition and other domestic priorities.

Whilst all this is going on, Syria is undergoing massive rearming, with missile bases that now cover the entire Jewish state. They have also been playing with nuclear options, but seem to be willing to just remain a threat in a conventional way, until better options become available.

Israel’s recent actions against Hamas will have aggravated tensions and spurred Arab nations to increase pressure on the state of Israel, but they are running out of patience and seem more willing than ever to take the fight to Israel. Access to nuclear weapons would significantly strengthen Arab resolve. It is also likely that they would use such weapons given half a chance, so their current posture is a huge threat to Middle East peace.

Russia is now becoming increasingly militant and will resume its may-day parades and other pre-perestroika, anti-western activities, aimed at restoring her military and strategic status in a world that finds itself in very dangerous times. Oil spiked to $109 yesterday, buoyed by Chinese demand for oil, with no end in sight for price rises. Such high prices are fuelling Russia’s military spending and providing them with a strong pretext for Middle-East intervention.

The concerns across the world have now also inspired China to “redouble” efforts at military preparedness, so expect them to significantly increase military spending. They are becoming a dangerous wild-card in a very unstable world.

Any one of the current flashing red-lights could trigger a runaway crisis in the Middle East at a time when the US may be at its weakest: elections and economic depression have eroded her resolve and her enemies seem to have smelt blood.

Of course the US is still committed to its position in the Mid-East, but it doesn’t help that a senior Naval Officer has resigned his Middle-East command due to misgivings about the US stance on the region. It also doesn’t help that US forces are facing major setbacks in security, with increased and ever more devastating bombing campaigns raging in Iraq. Nor does it help that Pakistan may well dethrone its incumbent military strongman at a time when Muslim fundamentalists are increasing their activities within that Nuclear-armed Islamic state.

The red horse of the apocalypse is off to war, bringing retribution to a world so corrupted by its insatiable greed, selfishness, profligacy and cruelty.

© Peter Eleazar at http://www.bethelstone.com/

The pale horse cometh

2008-03-10T02:14:00.000-07:00

The pale horse of the apocalypse, is preparing to retaliate against profligate abuse of our planet.

European public health specialists have discovered significant resistance to potential bird flu drug Tamiflu, questioning its ability to treat the disease. Previous studies had indicated much lower resistance, but 13 per cent of H1N1 samples tested had the resistance-conferring mutation. The European Centres for Disease Control insist that the drug could still provide some benefits (source: Financial Times).

This comes at a time when the world’s largest nation, China, is reporting new deaths, whilst nearby Indonesia has now chalked up 100 deaths. This is a virus and thus unresponsive to antibiotics, but of concern is that the only available immune defense, Tamiflu, is no longer viable against avian flu.

The WHO warned that the latest outbreak of bird flu in India is far more serious than previous ones. "More serious risk factors are associated with this current outbreak than previously encountered, including that the affected areas are more widespread and because of proximity to extended border areas," they say (source: Agence France Presse).

This is another significant warning of a disease that is starting to bite. It is reaching levels in some areas that shift it from epidemic to pandemic status. All efforts have been applied to localize and contain outbreaks of Avian flu, but new risk factors indicate that the disease it increasing its footprint and spreading beyond local boundaries quicker than authorities can regulate. When outbreaks occur, preventive measures include the destruction of poultry and other bird stocks. That is okay for non-flying bird species, but action against wild birds will aggravate the contagion and spread it like wild-fire.

In India, chickens are just dropping dead and 400,000 hens have been earmarked for slaughter, but locals have somehow learnt to exploit the situation to buy cheap-meat. That is the surest way to get the disease into human circulation and it exposes 1.1bn Indians to serious risk of a major outbreak, in a heavily over-crowded country with diminished levels of natural immunity.

Although humans are reasonably vulnerably to infection if they come into contact with the virus, the greatest concern is that the virus will mutate into a more transmittable disease. That exposes global health to serious risks.

The disease is still infantile, having only accounted for 235 deaths since first reported, so current levels of indifference are somewhat understandable, but the way that the disease is spreading and forming new gene pools and establishing new vectors for transmission of the disease, is laying foundations for a runaway crisis. Any disease has a doubling period, the time it takes to double its levels of infection. Initially that period could be considerable, but with each generation it will become more resilient and widespread. That will reduce the doubling period until it crosses a threshold or tipping point that would cause it to explode.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

The red bear is stirring

2008-03-07T02:06:00.000-08:00

A few disquieting signals in recent months, suggest that Russia is returning to a cold war posture.

On May 9 this year, tanks will roll through Red Square once again. Six thousand soldiers will march in a show of power, supported by Sukhoi 27 and Mig 29 fighters, missile launchers and other displays of aggression that leave little to the imagination regarding Russia’s strategic intents.

In recent months, Russian bombers have overflown a US aircraft carrier, other aircraft have tested missiles in the Bay of Biscay, the navy has undertaken extensive maritime exercises, Vladimir Putin has effectively contrived to hold onto power an dbrown shirted youth brigades (Nashis) have sweleld to 120,000. The press is being reigned in as Russia switches to a new concept of cold war politics, namely “Sovereign Democracy”, which means the government is democratically sovereign and will not bow to world opinion, verification or local censure.

The Russian military is anything but a spent force, but with billions of new Rubles rolling into the economy off all-time high oil prices and a good few years of significant economic growth, Russia has the resources to reacquire global strategic prominence.

Russia is also flirting with Iran, the one nation that poses the greatest threat to Iraqi and middle-east peace. Peace in that region is a scare and fragile commodity, held together by duct tape and patches. It holds because of finely-tuned power balances, thanks significantly to decades of US intervention that has managed to stabilize an otherwise very dangerous theatre. Had the US not propped up the Shah of Iran back in the day, Soviet expansionism into Afghanistan would have continued unchecked into the rest of the Middle East via an unprotected Iran, a situation that would have bolstered their global influence, by annexing control of strategic oil reserves.

But this time round, Putin seems set on avoiding past errors and the embarrassment of Russia’s forced withdrawal from Afghanistan. They have been currying favor with Iran, supplying nuclear technology and backing the Iranian leadership via the UN.

This has brought Iran to the very brink of nuclear leadership within the Middle East. Once they accumulate enough enriched fuel from their complex and fickle centrifugal processes, it would take months to assemble the relatively achievable hardware needed to weaponise their nuclear stockpile. The highly respected IAEA has signaled a clear warning to the world regarding the imminence of Iran’s aggressive ambitions, echoed by Israeli intelligence reports that suggest that it is almost too late to act.

Clearly there are very dangerous things happening in the most troubled regions at the centre of the earth, but these are just curtain raisers for the great convergence of world powers that is predicted by the bible. Armageddon is not far away and other world crises are fanning the flames that will result in the greatest conflagration in history, including: global economic uncertainty, US elections, the rise of Europe, UN realignment as the vanguard of the new world order, rising levels of anti-Semitism in Europe and a decline in value of the world’s reserve currency, the Dollar.

Is this not a time to settle outstanding accounts and set your house in order? God is a fearsome judge, but He is almost shouting His warnings to an otherwise nonchalant world community. We have brought the global climate to a critical level, serious pandemics are waiting in the wings and world-class conflicts are simmering at centre stage. Is it not time to take the warnings of the bible seriously and to act, in the words of Israeli intelligence, before it is too late.

(c) Peter Eleazar at http://www.bethelstone.com/

What bomb?

2008-03-01T06:51:00.000-08:00

Iran has little intention of backing down on its nuclear program - it may be worse than we thought.

We know that Russia and China are gladly siding with Iran. Russia is also providing them with enriched fuel. On the eve of Russian elections, other concerns about Russia’s posture are also emerging.

Russia seems to be shifting towards a cold war stance, whilst duping the Russian electorate into giving Putin an extended mandate. So the worrisome alliance with Iraq is not just an inconvenience: it has serious implications for global peace.

But, if that is worrying so is the fact that Germany, France and Britain are sitting on the fence about the imposition of sanctions, partly because of their own credit exposures. This notwithstanding Israeli and US concerns about Iran’s position and the intractability of their leader.

The UN was reliably advised, by the US intelligence community, that Iran stopped its weapons program in 2003. But now it seems that this was a clever smoke screen. The really tough part of a weapons program is the enrichment process, which uses hundreds of temperamental, high speed centrifuges to yield small quantities of enriched product.

The easy part of bomb making comes after the enrichment cycle and can be concluded within months. So it may no difference to Iran’s timetable to delay its bomb making activities until it had accumulated sufficient enriched fuel reserves.

Now the highly credible International Atomic Energy Agency has voiced concerns about suspicious activities relating to uranium conversion, the design and testing of nuclear warheads and delivery systems and the manufacture of high-explosive detonators for use in warheads. It seems that Iran has just been stringing the world along and that US and Israeli concerns were valid. But, as Israel recently observed, it is almost too late to act for once Iran is armed, action against them will be that more challenging. This situation is not far from reaching a critical tipping point.

In the midst of these dangerous developments, Israel is also gearing up for a full scale war against the Palestinians in Gaza. The ordinance flying over the border is now reaching serious levels, so Israeli action is imminent. This could put Israel on a collision course with the Islamic world that, once started, would be hard to stop short of using the moment to defuse the growing threat to the east.

Recent history suggests that Israel is very calculated in her military initiatives, largely because of world censure. As such they tend to try and do as much as possible within a very limited window of opportunity. Typically, they would have to conclude their operations within two to three weeks and then withdraw, but without the embarrassment of recent campaigns that fizzled into awkward stalemates where the enemy was neither routed nor dissuaded from its ongoing missile attacks against Israel.

These developments are curtain raisers for what could lead to a serious chain reaction in middle-east affairs. Russia is waiting for a pretext to engage the region, which might well come in the form of a military threat to their stake in Iran. This could come at a time when the US is in a state of flux due to domestic distractions. Three US warships have been moved toward the Israeli coast to monitor rising tensions between Israel and Gaza, but that might just be a pretext to lend some legitimacy to Israeli actions.

This is a really tough time for Israel as she is threatened on every flank by forces that have clearly declared their intention of crushing the Jewish state. That threat has hung of the Promised Land for decades, but now there are new and deeply disturbing threats emerging that limit peaceful options. Timing is critical if Israel wants to prevent a shift in the fine balance of power that keeps the middle-East from tearing apart.

Israel cannot afford to lose even a single war without exposing its population to genocide and its nationhood to politicide. Wars waged against Israel are wars of extermination that target its cities and population centers. Its enemies are seeking its total destruction ~ Alan Dershowitz.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

Red flags waving

2008-02-29T12:03:00.001-08:00

Sovereign democracy, as coined by Surkov, describes Russian political thinking under Vladimir Putin.

The term has noble inferences, but it is also used pejoratively. Russia is certainly democratic and constitutionally so. Under Vladimir Putin’s two terms of office, the economy has also grown significantly (8% up in 2007), notwithstanding a number of democratic concerns across society, notably low life expectancy and poverty. Putin has also used his office to exude a reasonably charming profile in world politics, engaging in major political events and mixing with world leaders.

However, as his second term nears its end, all kinds of misgivings are emerging. “Sovereign Democracy” appears to be a “take it or leave it” philosophy, in which the Duma applies a selective form of democracy. Any form of validation is perceived as hostile and press freedom has been severely muzzled under the same pretences.

Constitutionally, Putin must stand down, but technically he could stand down for the March election, take a "succession" break and resume his presidency at the end of his term in May. The constitution qualifies him for further terms, but limits him to two "successive" terms. For the March elections, he opted to push Dmitri Medveyev into the running, a move that is likely to shoe him into the hot-seat as a Putin stooge. For all western misgivings about Putin, he retains an, albeit diminished, 65% popularity rating at home – so consider Medveyev all but elected.

One reason for Putin’s popularity is the surge in the economy. Other reasons include national wariness with the west and with the western loyalties of former president Boris Yeltsin. Security issues may be a more prominent issue for the electorate, given concerns about NATO ambitions, Mid-East instability and the Chechnyan question.

However, there are dark undertones to all of this. Putin is showing some fascist tendencies. He has openly encouraged, what Russian liberals call the Putinjugend, a fascist jab that draws sinister parallels between the 120,000 strong, brown-shirted Nashi youth movement and Hitler’s own youth movements. Western analysts see the Nashi, the Youth Brigade and the Locals, as a drift towards fascism.

It is no coincidence that the same leadership has rattled sabers under the nose of NATO, by testing missiles in the Bay of Biscay and through large naval exercises. Russia is a resurgent force, equipped with large land forces, significant nuclear weapons and outstanding fighter aircraft. More recently Russian bombers were intercepted over the USS Nimitz near Japan, behaving in a very Cold War manner.

Given that Putin or his proxy could win the race for the Duma, alarm bells are starting to ring. It seems that the elections are being manipulated and certainly dissenting voices have been barred from TV networks. If the same leadership has ideological ambitions, there is great reason to be concerned. The rhetoric that is stirring the youth and the increasingly heavy-handed approach to matters economic and politic, signals a dangerous shift in Russian politics, a shift that for complex reasons seems to have the support of the masses.

In July 2007 Bret Stephens of The Wall Street Journal wrote: "Russia has become, in the precise sense of the word, a fascist state. It does not matter here, as the Kremlin's apologists are so fond of pointing out, that Mr. Putin is wildly popular in Russia: Popularity is what competent despots get when they destroy independent media, stoke nationalistic fervor with military buildups and the cunning exploitation of the Church, and ride a wave of petrodollars to pay off the civil service and balance their budgets. Nor does it matter that Mr. Putin hasn't re-nationalized the "means of production" outright; corporatism was at the heart of Hitler's economic policy, too."

The upshot of all this is a dangerous Russian-Iranian alliance, which the Bible predicted and named “Gog and Magog”. That same alliance has the potential to stoke middle east tensions and trigger a major standoff that would include retaliation against US occupation of Iraq and a much talked about foray against Israel, Iran’ great nemesis.

(c) Peter Eleazar at http://www.bethelstone.com/

The world needs a health check

2008-02-26T23:48:00.000-08:00

Multiple Drug Resistant (MDR) Tuberculosis poses a serious and increasing threat to global health.

In Baku, capital of Azerbaidzhan, 25% of all tuberculosis patients present with MDR. This is the highest world sample rate, but the global ratio of MDR to total TB infection, is now over 5%. The total number of victims increases globally by more than half a million per year.

The TB bacterium was always treated by efficacious antibiotics, although such treatment regimes were time sensitive. It required a long term discipline on the part of the patient and it imposed a big cost on health authorities.

Some authorities prefer to hospitalize patients to ensure that treatment is persistent, but that is not practical. Unfortunately too many patients are slacking on their treatment and this has enabled the sickness to survive and mutate into drug resistant strains that not only impair the survivability of patients but also increase patient to patient transmission of this virulent and dangerous infection.

I wrote earlier on Avian flu and its relationship to the Spanish flu that killed between 20 and 40 million people in 1918/19. A new threat of Avian flu is imminent and Tamiflu, the only known defense against a pandemic, is now reported to be ineffective against emerging strains of Avian flu. This concern is now compounded by a dangerous upward trend in MDR TB infection levels.

TB is also a side effect of AIDS, because we all have dormant strains of TB that reside below our immune thresholds, but AIDS compromises immunity thus enabling tragic infections to take hold and claim lives of already very ill patients. AIDS has not become the monster that we once predicted, but it could become a vector for TB transmission, a great monster that has never been beaten.

The world is a sick place. Other factors that are aggravating global health concerns include global warming, which is enhancing the viability of diseases that have until now been well restrained by healthy climactic conditions.

I saw a documentary on anthrax infections in South African game reserves. It showed what happens when browsers, like the Kudu antelope, eat dried leaves in drought conditions. This scratches their guts and enables blood infusion of this highly virulent antigen, enabling it to rise from its dormancy within the soils we daily tread. Of course, environmentally astute conservationists have come to see this all as just another day in paradise, for anthrax outbreaks merely restore the balance between land capacity and population. Floods eventually wash it all away and restore the balance between life and death. That is also true for seasonal human infections that are annually cut back by winter frosts, thereby ensuring the sustainability of human life and a check on disease.

However, the conditions that have so effectively regulated health on the planet, including human developed interventions such as antibiotics, are being marginalized by changes in world around us.

The fourth horseman of the apocalypse seems to be on the march, exposing human folly and bringing swift and tragic recompense for unprincipled human development. We have not been good stewards of our inheritance and now our children face the consequences of decades of human profligacy.

I do not smart when I report on these things for generally it is innocent lives in poor, marginalized nations that bear the brunt of progress, whilst the rich just get richer at their expense. I am deeply saddened by what is happening and hope that reason will prevail before it is too late.

© Peter Eleazar at http://www.bethelstone.com/

Better late than ...

2008-02-25T04:12:00.000-08:00

Israel has called for intensified sanctions against Iran, before events there reach a critical mass..

There is such a thing as "too late" in the whole debate around Iran. Once they acquire nuclear weapons, the US and other UN nations will be reluctant if not unable to act against Iran. Weapons of mass destruction are a huge deterrent to the US, but no deterrent to Iran.

Iran pronoounces death on Israel should die for almost any reason: They invent new righteous invocations against God's people every other day. Iranians are highly reactive, with enough religious fanaticism to justify suicidally implulsive behavior. They want a war with Israel and they also hate America, even if hatred blinds the mind to objective alternatives and erodes the many surpassing benefits of reasoned dialogue.

A counter-attack on US occupation of Iraq is high on the Iranian leader’s mind. But his “piece de resistance”, would be an attack on Israel. It has not, nor will it ever occur to him, that Israel will fight to the last man in defense of their homeland or that they are both exceedingly brave and arguably the most effective fighting force in the world.

The Jews fought four major wars of occupation since 1949 and won them all against overwhelming odds and all kinds of soviet sophistication. They have since won every other conflict that has come their way, with perhaps one exception being a more recent anti-terrorist initiative that ended in a stale-mate.

Israel has nuclear weapons and delivery systems that would do far more harm to her enemies. She also has anti-missile technologies. Nonetheless, it remains highly unlikely that it would ever come to that, for Israel will preemptively attack before allowing herself to be attacked by a nuclear power. The US faces a real dilemma in resisting any preemptive action whilst persuading the UN to intensify pressure on Iran. But Iran could care less, as they have strong allies, notably Russia, and they have enough oil to sustain their economy against protracted embargoes.

Even if Iran were to suffer serious economic impairment, it is unlikely that they would back-pedal on their prized nuclear program. They are far less worried about economics or developmental politics. The ideological prize at stake is of far greater value than any alternative short-term financial incentive. Nuclear weapons would provide them with influence and respect in Middle-East and Islamic affairs.

Ahmadinejad already denies the holocaust, notwithstanding overwhelming documentary evidence. It is generally accepted in all schools of learning that the accuracy of historic facts is proportionate to the recency of documentation, but sixty years of recency is not enough for the Iranian leader, so doubtless he has also forgotten Israel’s more recent war record. Jesus said, “There are none so blind as those who will not see”.

Israel is absolutely right to protest to the UN that a point of no return is imminent and that action is required now, for Ahmadinejad is completely blinded by his own ideology and self-importance. He is a very dangerous wild-card in a very volatile region.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

Atishoo, Atishoo, we all fall down

2008-02-24T20:47:00.000-08:00

If a pandemic flu should break out now, we would be ill equipped to deal with its all consequences.

Flu can be extremely virulent and pervasive. It infected 20% of the world and killed 20 to 40 million people in 1918/19. The agent of transmission for the “Spanish Flu”, was soldiers returning from the Great War.

But flu transmission rates would be far higher in the current era, due to global communications. An aggravating factor is global warming, which not only enhances the viability of bugs, also increases their range. No longer are viruses and bacteria limited to warmer low-lying ground, for they are migrating uphill to previously un-reached zones of the earth. Global warming also implies longer summers and a greater opportunity for bugs to multiply, migrate or mutate across wide areas of human habitation.

It is against this backdrop that Edmonton News, Canada recently reported on outdated vaccine stocks that would be ineffective against counter-therapies. European authorities have similarly reported the ineffectiveness of Tamiflu against new flu strains.

The avian virus has mutated and is continuing to mutate into more resistant strains. However, such mutations are regarded merely as pathological drifts or moderate adaptations. The question that haunts scientists and government authorities is, “how long will it take before these viruses experience a pathological shift into a human to human infection or, worse yet, an airborne infection?”

Even if new vaccines were to be developed now, we cannot hope to keep up with the rate of mutation. Indeed, we are even at risk to more conventional flu outbreaks, because antibiotics have a significantly diminished effectiveness against secondary infections. Flu generally passes quickly, but the mucous build up that results from an attack migrates to the lungs or sinuses causing complex, secondary infections that already have serious, often fatal implications for victims. If a far more aggressive avian virus were to become pandemic it would attack us through primary and secondary infections, but in both cases we would find ourselves very vulnerable and ill-equipped to cope.

Perhaps some first world countries will be better prepared for a pandemic, although Canada and Europe are as first world as you can get. However, they would be less prepared to handle a runaway crisis, because such societies are so dependent on organized systems and technologies that have undermined the survivability or adaptability of humans.

Third world societies, representing more than half the global population would have limited direct defenses against a pandemic. They would not be able to inoculate vast, rural populations and would be unable to withstand the rate of infection in crowded urban contexts. However, as those societies lapse into chaos, they would generally adapt better because they have lived so long in marginal environments. Many victims could recover quicker and experience better survival rates, although malnourished communities with highly compromised immune systems, would die like flies.

According to the book of Revelation, the fourth horseman of the apocalypse would have power to destroy a quarter of the world, about 1.5billion victims. Whilst avian flu might not be the only consideration here, an avian flu pandemic would certainly aggravate an already compromised world health environment and present authorities with enormous social consequences.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

The four horsemen

2008-02-24T20:42:00.000-08:00

The four horsemen of the apocalypse speak of serious global crises that seem to be very imminent..

Revelations 6 speaks of the opening of the great seals of a book. The book is opened in heaven by a lamb, a prophetic picture of the great redeemer, Jesus.

A proper reading of scriptures in the gospels of John, Colossians and other relevant scriptures, reveals Jesus as the creator and the one who holds the universe together. Thus John said, He is before all things and by Him all things consist, for without Him was nothing made.

He is the same one with the exclusive power to open the seals of the great book, just as Arthur had exclusive power to withdraw Excalibur from stone. The book describes the unfolding of history, a process determined by Jesus who was commissioned by His Father, before the worlds were formed, to restore all things and destroy death.

The first seal of the book, released the four horsemen of the apocalypse. Those horsemen may well have ridden through history, being the agents provocateur of world events, throughout the ages. That would be one interpretation and my next comment does not minimize that, for the bible is layered into many parallel expressions. Thus both that interpretation and an eschatological or end-time perspective would be valid interpretations of Revelations 6.

The end-time perspective suggests that the four horsemen would be released in the climax of the ages. It implies that “we ‘aint seen nothing yet”. The worst is yet to come. The entire book of Revelations confirms that idea. It is going to get far worse here below, but if we look at each judgment of God we will ultimately have to accept that we merely brought disaster upon ourselves, for every judgment reflects the folly of humankind.

That was as true when God judged Egypt with plagues. Each plague targeted the specific offences of Egypt, but the last plague recompensed them for an earlier pogrom of the Hebrews. But hey, don’t rely on my warnings about the consequences of our folly, go chat to Al Gore or UN chief Banki Moon – they have been actively warning us about coming world crises.

The first horseman was mounted on an imperial white war-horse. All conquering Napoleon also rode a white mount, so this prophesy again conveys layered meanings. This horseman is not just a provoker of conflict, but an instigator of war. The vision speaks of a rising threat of world conflict. The daily news suggests that clouds of war are gathering over the Middle East and with that threat is a risk of nuclear warfare. Syria, Iran and Pakistan are currently developing nuclear capabilities, so this threat is very real and imminent. The real tragedy here though, is that we just never will learn from history about how to preserve peace and prevent the sufferings of war – there is always some fool who hitches onto the apparent glamour of war until the first shot cuts off his tongue and close his widened eyes.

The second, fiery red horse is not imperialistic, but disruptive. It provokes the world into states of conflict and tensions between people and probably refers to national crises, where brother will go up against brother. Again we can see parallels in the great civil wars of history, but there is a wave of internecine violence sweeping world cultures as never before. Crime, insurrection, lawlessness and terrorism, are becoming commonplace and pose a major threat to global security and stability.

The third, black horse, rides out with scales. It has judicial and economic undertones, implying a breakdown of order and increasing economic distress. That is happening right now, with the world facing economic woes from rising oil prices, global inflation, a weak dollar, US public debt, sub-prime crises and falling stock prices. Yet, the prophecy could again refer back to other great economic crises, such as the great depression. I think here I need to make the point that maybe the great depression was a bow-shot, a warning to all of us about what will happen if we don’t right our wrongs and a threat of worse to come if we don’t repent.

The last horseman rides a pale horse and has power to destroy a quarter of the world. The bubonic plague killed millions, the great Spanish flu of 1918/19 killed tens of millions and there have been other great pandemics. But changing climates and the threat of a major avian flu outbreak now threaten a world that is hopelessly ill-prepared for a cataclysmic crisis. The Spanish flu was spread globally by soldiers returning from the Great War, but new outbreaks would spread much faster. Climate changes could carry infected birds around the world and introduce new diseases that could not survive outside of global warming. But global travel systems will also help to transmit any airborne or patient-to-patient viruses. This also represents a real and present danger.

The world is on the brink of major apocalyptic events. It is tottering to and fro like a drunken man. The evil one will soon take his place on the world stage and that stage is being prepared through events that will establish a ten member permanent security council in the UN. The rise of Europe will also provide a vital platform for a new, antichrist world order.

(c) Peter Eleazar @ http://www.bethelstone.com/

Pakistan votes for peace

2008-02-24T20:38:00.000-08:00

So Pakistan has managed to hold a peaceful election. What a wonder. But can democracy keep the peace?

It is almost certain that Pervez Musharraf is on his way out. Whether he will be completely ousted remains to be seen, for he certainly remains a significant factor in Pakistani politics. It is assumed that he holds at least some influence over the military and could always reclaim power if the current peace is not to his liking. I am sure the new regime would like to neutralize his military influence, but to destroy him completely may be a lesser option. They may need to co-opt him to ensure his cooperation.

Musharraf is likely to emerge with a fairly sizeable electoral base, which could be bargained into a coalition government, thus giving him proxy power. Many political contexts have been better ruled by proxy through a more acceptable public face, so Musharraf would not be setting any precedent if he wields influence indirectly.

Musharraf and the late Benazir Bhutto were both pro-west and anti-Taliban. Pakistanis are currently wary of the Taliban and Al Quaeda. They also feel threatened by their resurgence in neighboring Afghanistan. Although this has meant that the electorate have voted against the "Islamists", it will take a strong person to push back radicals and keep order in the country.

There is none stronger in a country marred by corrupt leaders, than Pervez Musharraf, but if the winning parties expend energy on resisting him they will dilute Pakistan's pro-western, anti-Taliban role. That would strengthen the Islamists, who are already threatening a resurgence of violence.

The options available as future premier include Bhutto’s husband, Asif Ali Zardari, who could be elected to parliament through a by-election – he was called Mr.Ten Percent, because he siphoned off so much on government tenders. Nawaz Sharif is as corrupt, which is why he was ousted from power and exiled by Pervez Musharraf.

There are less corrupt options, leaders who could plug the pretext that brought Musharraf to power in the first place. But tend to be more are anti-west and are certainly hostile to Musharraf. They could destabilize an already fragile democracy. For all their strengths, their resentment of Musharraf is risky.

The upshot of all of the political goings on in Pakistan, is a potential shift away from a pro-western stance or dilution thereof. A formerly pro-western Iran, once faced a similar situation. The CIA brought the Shar of Iran from obscurity to power and then manipulated the nation through his oppressive, anti-democratic style of leadership. Eventually the dam-wall broke and Ayatollah Khomeini spearheaded a revolution that restored a theocratic, but despotic state.

If public sentiment about pro-western alliances becomes a pretext for a realignment of Pakistan, conditions could ultimately favor a revolutionary climate. That could open dangerous doors for the Taliban, Al Quaeda, Iran and other radical factions of Islam. A revolution could be in the making. These are heady times for Pakistan.

The hope is that this peace-loving nation, having already staged a remarkable election process within the context of a good constitutional framework, will find a way to build on its hard-fought foundations.

Prophetically, Pakistan remains at the crossroads of significant future developments in the middle-east. Her nuclear arsenal remains tantalizing to the more radical Islamic factions of the region who will be quick to exploit any political opportunity to co-opt Pakistan to their militant, anti-US objectives.

The bible predicts the entree of China into the middle-east fray. Revelations 16:2 refers to China to as a mighty army of 200 million horsemen called the “Kings of the East”, who will forge the Euphrates in Iraq. The reference to horsemen may well indicate the future status of oil and the underlying motive for engaging such a war, whilst the reference to Iraq probably reflects a hangover of the ill-fated and imminent Gog-Magog campaign against that country by a Russian-Iranian alliance.

The corridor that China must use is a thin line on the map, called the Hindu-Kush corridor. It links China with the Middle East and the gateway is slap-bang in the middle of the disputed Kashmir region that defines a simmering conflict between India, China and Pakistan. Future radicalization of a nuclear-capable Pakistan, could be the trigger that opens the gates and ushers in one of the final and most dramatic stages of end-time prophecy.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

Pakistanis are polls apart

2008-02-24T20:36:00.000-08:00

Pakistan goes to the polls Monday. Doubt exists about the possibility of free and fair elections..

The elections are of great concern to the free world because Taliban/Al Quaeda allies inside Pakistan, are seeking a pretext to push their agenda in a nation that has the only nuclear arsenal of the Muslim world. By that I am not suggesting that it’s a problem that Muslim’s have the bomb, per se, but the risk of nuclear weapons faling into the hands of militant ideologues, like the Taliban or Al Quaeda, is of real concern.

General Pervez Musharraf will stand for election as a citizen, but as the incumbent power he has substantial resources at his disposal to prejudice the electoral hopes of other candidates. With 65,000 polling stations it is very difficult for electoral observers to ensure fair play, so the rumors of vote rigging will be hard to preempt.

If Musharraf does win illegitimately, it is possible that life will just go on as normal anyway. But a backlash against his unpopular hold on power is inevitable. It could come now or later, but when it does it could put this peace-loving nation on a perilous path that would play right into the hands of Taliban/Al Quaeda sympathizers.

Regardless of how the elections turn out, a rigged vote is going to increase support for alternative views, although for now extremism still remains a non-option for most Pakistanis. Unfortunately for the extremists, they have not helped their cause by attacking civilian targets inside Pakistan. But, Musharraf remains a unifying force for all who are opposed to his rule and that factor would potentially provide common ground for extremist and more moderate groups.

The Pakistani foreign minister has said publicly that he believes the Taliban are winning the war in Afghanistan and has said that Pakistan will no longer intervene militarily in the region. They also believe that NATO forces should start withdrawing from that country. It means that the Taliban are regrouping and could influence radicals inside Pakistan or at least exploit any instability that will result from internal frustration with the political status quo.

I remain of the view that a crisis is in the making and that powerful forces could ultimately place Pakistan on a collision force with the west and with its powerful neighbors, India and China. As the sole custodian of nuclear weapons in the Islamic world, Pakistan is a big prize for political extremists and all who seek to destabilize the Middle East. A future crisis could provide the pretext for a biblically-predicted entrée into Middle Eastern politics by China. Such an outcome could be triggered by a serious threat to the status quo in the disputed Kashmir region, which is also the gateway to the Islamic Axis.

(c) Peter Eleazar at http://www.bethelstone.com/

Go to hell

2008-02-24T20:35:00.000-08:00

Hell no I will not go says Ahmadinjejad as he again resists western concerns about his nuke program.

It is hard to believe that Iran’s intentions are purely peaceful as long as they keep antagonizing the legitimate concerns of world powers. Nukes are very dangerous, but weapons of mass destruction in an already torrid Middle East make for a lethal cocktail.

If you knew your next door neighbor was just storing explosives, let alone building bombs, how would you feel? Surely all this provocation must be very unsettling, for Israel particularly, and for the US and her allies. Heck, just think what happens if you mix enough fissionable material with a bit of idealism, recklessness and emotionalism?

The Middle East is so unstable already, all it will take is enough provocation and the whole pile will go up. You don’t even need a nuke to set the Middle East aflame.

World War 1 was not started by military action, but by a trigger event that provided a pretext for military action. The quest for land and power was stirring, but when Archduke Ferdinand was assassinated, without any subsequent apology from Serbia, a chain of events was initiated that led to a global war and millions dead.

The situation in the Middle East cannot strain much further. The region has more than enough despots who love war but remain painfully ignorant of its consequences. The Iranian leader may well achieve some kind of short term advantage if he should ever acquire or deploy WMD’s, but he would not be able to manage the long term fallout.

Right now Israel is on red alert after the death by Israeli action of one of the most dangerous militants in Hamas. At the same time, she is threatening to act against Gaza for the continuous rain of rockets firing over the border. Ehud Barak, Israeli defence minister, reports that they are ready for a Gaza operation.

So Israel is on a state of heightened alert and a pre-war footing that could quickly escalate if other events across the region bring conditions to a tilting point.

Meanwhile, Ahmadinejad continues to froth at the mouth about his “go to hell” attitude towards world concerns? Methinks he really doesn't understand the situation very well.

I can only assume his rhetoric has been emboldened, either by the support of his allies (Russia particularly) or by the progress of his nuclear program or by a wave of popular support for his nuclear leadership. Either way, an expectation of follow-through is being created and that could well mean he has dangerous plans to take his struggle to new and dangerous levels.

The US has been forced to back-pedal over Iran, because of UN reports that Iranian nuclear activities are purely peaceful. How long will the status prevail and what will happen when the tide turns?

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

Red lights flashing

2008-02-24T20:32:00.001-08:00

Vladimir Putin seriously threatens Russian democracy, but his actions also threaten global peace..

Upcoming elections are already showing signs of rigging and foreign observer missions are being heavily censored or limited, whilst the Russian leader manipulates his way to another presidential term.

At the same time, Russian military forces are reviving. They have arguably the best multi-role combat fighter, the super-cruising, stealth capable Mig-35. They recently tested their long-range bombers and missiles in the Bay of Biscay, right under the noses of NATO commanders. Their long range ballistic capabilities have been preserved by their space program. Their navy conducted extensive exercises in 2007 and they are playing a dangerous game of opportunism in the Middle East.

If Putin wins another term through deceipt, is he capable of doubling back on the reassurances of peace he has been selling the world over recent years? I believe he is and that the bible foresaw such an eventuality.

The key to Russia’s ability to reassert her strategic position is the annexing of strategic assets in the Middle-East. That would give her a dominant stake in the world’s most vital energy resource, oil. Iraq, with 25% of global reserves, is a big prize for both hemispheres, but if the US is unable to protect her interests due to recessionary and other political predispositions, Russia is very likely to goad Iran into giving it a go. By that I mean that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran, who would very much like to upstage the US in Iraq, is mad enough to strike preemptively with Russian backing.

Arguments about the legitimacy of the US occupation of Iraq will be forthcoming, but it would take less for a despot like the Iranian leader to do something as rash as attacking Iraq. He has been supplying arms to Iraqi resistance fighters, so his colors are clearly nailed to the mast. But the window of opportunity that would briefly open in a moment of weakness in the US, could spur him to take his chances, with Russia’s blessing.

The Israeli secret service, the Mossad, arguably the most effective intelligence agency around, has uncovered evidence that Iran is building Nuclear weapons whilst maintaining a cover about their peaceful intentions. Once they reach the tipping point where the US is forced to back down for fear of exposing her forces to the great nemesis, Iran may be emboldened enough to strike.

If Putin is already playing a dangerous political game it is because he has a sinister agenda. That agenda is becoming more evident with each passing day, suggesting that his reelection in March could portend a very serious shift in East-West relationships and a return to cold-war politics.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

The ultimate seat of power ....

2008-02-08T12:25:00.000-08:00

Tony Blair has aspirations for the presidency of Europe, a significant seat of power that would probably become the future seat of antichrist.

The European Union is to centralize its leadership under a premier, the EU President. There has been a rotating chairmanship or presidency of the European Parliament for some time, but it did not have the same implications as an EU President, who would, like the US president, preside over the political administration of Europe.

If the US presidency is powerful, often quoted as the most powerful job in the world, then the European president could be the more powerful. The office would preside over a selected cabinet of ministers who would determine policy, introduce laws, administer all arms of the European government and manage regulations, enabling a significant level of control over the destiny of Europe. It will span the entire European continent, including fringe countries in the Mediterranean basin. If Blair wins the presidency, it may well be to influence Britain into full integration, something that the British people would find hard to resist given the prestige of a British president.

Babylonian king Nebuchadnezzar had a dream, which was interpreted by Daniel and recorded by the same prophet in the book of the same name. That vision depicted a giant image comprising: a head of gold (symbolic of the prevailing Babylonian empire); arms and chest of silver (representing the branching of Persia into two arms, the Medes and Persians); a torso of bronze (representing the Grecian Bronze Age); and finally legs of iron (the two major legs of the Roman iron age, centered around Rome and Constantinople). Out of the legs arose ten toes made of mixture of iron and clay, a synthesis of Romanism and Humanism (biblically we are made of clay).

The latter phase of the vision speaks of a resurgent, humanistic Roman Empire, founded in Europe (former Roman territory) and comprising ten principal nations. There are more than ten nations in the EU right now and membership wavers. Britain is a partial member, having exempted herself from being part of the currency union, whilst remaining a full fledged member of the political union of Europe. It is debatable whether Britain will stay in the union for many reasons. The British are just British, a proud people who have been at odds with Germany and France at various stages of history. They are reluctant to throw in their lot with their nemeses or to forsake the British Commonwealth over which the monarch presides. Britain is also proud of her heritage, her monarchy and the traditions that have held her together.

So the EU will likely comprise the rest of Europe, that Europe which was once annexed by Germany and Napoleon (who called himself the Emperor of Europe). It incorporates the Holy Roman Empire (the first Reich and the basis of Hitler’s Third Reich) and includes the pinnacle of Roman Catholicism, the Vatican. Napoleon delivered a mortal wound to Roman Catholicism when he revoked the papal dominance of Europe with his own Imperialism. That wound was healed during the reign of Pope John Paul II, who restored pride and goodwill in Rome. The bible predicts an alliance between the political reign of antichrist and a world religion. Is it possible that the antichrist would co-opt the church as happened at various times of history, when political forces harnessed the immense influence of the church to control the teeming masses of Europe through the Spanish Inquisition, Indulgences, forced conversion of non-Catholics and the appeasement of Constantine, who co-opted the growing force of Christianity into a synthesis of paganism and Theism.

Gordon Brown is currently working to bolster the UN and position that august body as a world power. That may be to shift the balance of power away from Europe. The US has been marginalized in the last decade, due to weak leadership and the growing threat of a recession, making conditions ripe for a realignment of world power around Europe, so Brown may be acting preemptively. However, he could just as well be a second prong of action involving Blair and himself, to facilitate the convergence of world power around Europe. Time will tell.

It is evident that prophetic events are unfolding right before our eyes at a time when the stage for Armageddon is being set in the Middle East. The various apocalyptic forces of Russia, Germany, India, the Islamic axis and Europe are being sucked into a prophetic maelstrom that would set at least half the world (about three billion people) on a dangerous and climactic collision course. Islam believes this to be their moment of destiny and will not turn back. Russia seems happy to lean on that momentum to further her own strategic objectives. India could be engaged by deteriorating conditions in Pakistan, which would give China a pretext to strike preemptively in defense of her own strategic interests. And if antichrist ascends the European seat of power, Europe will rush in to defend its own politico-religious objectives.

© Peter Eleazar at http://www.bethelstone.com/

Big brother's watching

2008-02-08T12:00:00.000-08:00

The Big Brother phenomenon is a man-god concept that enables sinister powers of control over people.

The FBI is to spend $1billion to develop a biometric database, enabling them to identify people based on voice, finger, hand, eye or other biometric features. It is intended to “protect the people and the children of America”.

Every strength has its weaknesses and vice versa. The value of any law enforcement system is unquestionable and the FBI, founded by J Edgar Hoover, has sucked up its fair share of miscreants and social threats. My own country has a variation of the FBI as a second police-force. It has done wonders in terms of uprooting political corruption in and out of the regular police-force. It provides a self-regulating mechanism by which each force monitors and regulates the other. That is useful and the fact that the FBI, as for our own agency, cuts across federal lines to serve national interests, is also valuable in reinforcing the focus of local policing, whilst bridging the limitations imposed on local police forces.

Over the years the fight against crime and terrorism has become very sophisticated. Again this is to be praised, for the criminals and terrorists always seek to go one up. They are sophisticated and adept at manipulating legal technicalities in their favor. This demands a criminal justice system that can develop prosecutable cases based on solid evidence, the product of efficient surveillance. Every crime scene leaves some evidence, but modern forensics is developing scant evidence into hard facts that are nailing criminals and helping us to make a safer world for law-abiding members of society.

However, as we have seen in the movies, there is a growing shift towards intrusive surveillance, enabling people to be tracked anywhere, anytime. That has already crossed the fine line that divides legitimate law enforcement from the rights to individuality and freedom. The zeal of law enforcement authorities is purely self-serving. They are paid to be single-minded and just want to do their jobs well whilst limiting the impact on their own resources. That focus cannot be compromised by the law enforcers, because they do not have the scope to think that laterally. But somewhere higher up the political chain of command, legislators need to strike the right balance between competing rights: the right to protection versus the right to freedom.

The bible predicts that a one-world government would reflect the original spirit of Babel and calls it “mystery Babylon the great”. People once tried to build a tower to reach the heavens and be as God. We have now reached the heavens, a satellite-based enterprise that has also universalized the cultures and languages of the globe into a networked or connected society. It is borderless, enabling trade between people across the earth. The system behind that also facilitates global surveillance and will eventually integrate into a universal platform capable of precise control over every global citizen.

Key to that process is a reliable identification system, using biometrics to uniquely identify and track individuals. $1billion of US tax-payers money will buy a lot of surveillance power and provide a powerful vehicle for offensive levels of control. Surveillance technology is arguably shifting the balance of power out of the hand of elected authorities into the hands of parastatal and paramilitary authorities, who by the very nature of their mandates, operate above the law.

The 666 “mark-of-the-beast”, is an astute prophetic insight into the vulnerability of existing identification systems and the inevitability of systems capable of uniquely identifying everyone, reliably. It will be a biometric system and is already in service, being used to track animals and criminals. It uses RFI technology to feedback data to a nerve-centre and is capable of geo-fencing. My wife’s boss has two very expensive Siamese cats, which are geo-fenced. If they step beyond the electronically defined boundaries to which they are limited, the RFI device around their necks delivers a startling electric shock. The same systems could be used to control house-arrest criminals and thus keep them out of jail, as such.

There is something very sinister about all this. The CIA, conveniently to Republican electoral ambitions, reports that Al Quaeda is planning another 911 hit on the US homeland. How useful the untouchable, indefinable, mystical threat of Bin Laden and his merry men have been to the Republican cause and to the two terms of office handed to an otherwise inadequate administration. That same pretext is now being used to close the eyes of liberal politicians to the risks of overt surveillance and its implications for the land of the free and brave.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

Not that button stupid, the other ....

2008-02-06T01:17:00.000-08:00

The US has placed Pakistan in the path of Taliban resistance. This puts its nuclear arsenal at risk.

The Taliban deeply resents Pakistani actions against the Taliban and the alliance of President Musharraf with the US, who is a product of US foreign policy.

The Taliban threatens a major retaliatory attack on Pakistan and extremist groups within the country are mobilizing politically and aggressively to oppose the regime.

US policy has put Pakistan on a dangerous path. They are a peace loving people, moderate Islamists who were even tolerant enough to democratically elect a female president, within a constitutional context. But Musharraf is a repressive leader, who came to power through a coup on the pretext of confronting real corruption in the government. He has manipulated the constitution in his favor, to extend his unwelcome hold on power and marginalize any opposition.

Due to the standoff with India, over the annexure of the Kashmir by that country, Pakistan has built nuclear weapons and medium range missiles. It has an advanced nuclear capability and is the only Islamic country with a significant nuclear arsenal.

The tensions between India are a simmering issue that could blow up eventually, but it is more likely that events inside Pakistan would be a trigger for a domino effect that would bring India, China and other near and fast east nations into a world-class conflict.

The CNS centre for non-proliferation studies, cites four risk areas regarding Pakistan. They are: (1) The potential impact of political instability in Pakistan; (2) the likelihood of nuclear terrorism; (3) the possibility of rogue military commanders or units gaining access to nuclear warheads or fissile material, and (4) the consequences of any temporary loss of centralized control over nuclear storage sites.

It is conceded by various watchdogs that the concerns around these issues are potentially overstated and Musharraf has been at pains to reassure the world about the security of their nuclear resources.
Nonetheless, Pakistan sits at the gateway to the great highway from the east that the bible predicts will be used by China to enter the middle-east fray. The highway passes through the narrow Hindu-Kush corridor, the thin strip of land reserved by the finger of God, that brings the Islamic world to the gates of China. The gateway is controlled by two arch-enemies, India and Pakistan and is under the influence of radical forces in Afghanistan: which adjoins the same critical region.

China, whose military buildup is now outstripping its defensive requirements has a desperate need for resources, particularly land and oil. So the bible correctly speculates that they will have a strong motive for a middle-east escapade. But Russian is evidently trying to steal a march on China through her alliance with Iran. Russian actions or Pakistani politics could be the trigger for a serious meltdown in that region, bringing the nations to an all-out state of conflict.

The biblical predictions (Ezekiel 38-39, echoed in revelations and the Q'uran) about Gog and Magog, predict a Russian-Iranian alliance (also involving other players), that will strike against US controlled Iraq. The US is heading into a serious recession and a state of flux due to elections, so may be sufficiently distracted to allow such opportunism.

Russia will conclude its own election season in March to extend Putin’s reign. Evidence points to underhanded political activities by the incumbent administration. These events suggest a potentially serious regression in the Russian political scene, conditions that could favor a return to its former ways. Could that embolden Russia to try and reclaim her strategic position, by having another go at the middle-east (they failed in Afghanistan)?

(c) Peter Eleazar at ww.bethelstone.com

We all stand together

2008-02-04T22:32:00.000-08:00

This world has an open economy. The Amazon, the Middle East and US economic policy, affects us all.

Recent acceleration of Amazon deforestation provoked concerned world leaders to dissuade Brazil from its current course of action. The world’s greatest lung is threatened at a time when the planet so desperately needs every carbon sponge it can find. As I write at least another football field of pristine, ancient forest, has disappeared. It will probably be reduced to firewood as well, compounding the environmental impact.

Further north, the US is in the throws of an intense pre-election season, the outcome of which will either bring America’s oldest, blackest or most female candidate to the white house. The black and the woman, Obama and Clinton, are neck and neck on super-Tuesday. Obama has a slight edge, but the pundits still feel she will surge – we will know soon enough. The Republicans, however, seem to have an emerging winner in John MCain, although Mitt Romney may give them a better chance of winning against the Democratic hopefuls. But, so what … a president is not defining to US politics as the constitution has enough checks and balances to outlive individual players.

But what does concern is the legacy Bush will leave. Again, maybe it’s not Bush as such. After all, he no longer has majority support in either house of the US legislature, so if his latest economic proposals find the light of day, blame democracy.

To offset sub-prime fallout, the Fed cut interest rates. The idea is to soften the blow to consumers, whilst stimulating growth to offset a looming recession. But a low interest rate aggravates an already worrying level of Dollar disinvestment, whilst reducing the price of US investments to foreign buyers. A lower interest rate also does little to address the structural inadequacies of the US economy.

All economies face cycles, a healthy feature of progress. Contraction leads to consolidation, rationalization and spring-cleaning. It tightens belts, clears out dead wood and restores efficiencies. Funding it away, merely delays the evil day of reckoning, whilst making the inevitable fall harder on all and tougher on recovery.

In a desperate measure, the US exchequer initiated tax rebates to alleviate some of the burdens facing sub-prime victims. 38% of the beneficiaries said they will not spend that money immediately – good for them. 62% will convert the benefit into short-term consumption spending, wiping out any good that the measure sought to do, whilst aggravating dangerously high public debt levels.

Now President Bush wants to inject $3trillion into the economy, significantly on defence spending, to shore up a sagging economy. The money for that will take the US deficit and its public debt levels well beyond current critical levels. It is interesting that the last great depression was resolved by a “New Deal”, which involved massive public spending and deficit funding. Could the next depression risk being triggered by the same policies and, if so, what policies lie beyond that to rescue the US if such policies fail?

Again we might all say “so what?” The painfully passé and naïve Monroe doctrine stated “you worry about your hemisphere and we’ll worry about ours.” That thinking still prevails: we have only to consider the intransigence of Bush over environmental issues. The global economy is pegged against the Dollar, the world’s reserve currency: so US domestic policy is a global issue.

However, of graver concern is the fact that the clouds of war are slowly gathering in the middle-east and major powers smell blood. There are pickings aplenty beneath middle-east soil, but if the US also falls on its sword and allows its economic crises to threaten its role in the region, a dangerous world-class conflict becomes a greater likelihood.

Russia is rising to political prominence again and March elections look increasingly dodgy for Putin’s opponents. China is short of resources to fuel its economic growth, but has over-capitalized on military spending, thereby reserving her military options. India and Pakistan are also part of this heady mix, whilst NATO and Europe talk about their own plans for shoring up their own strategic capabilities. If the US is marginalized, the balance of power could shift and open up the world’s hotbed to dangerous opportunism.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

We want it all and we want it now

2008-02-04T19:56:00.000-08:00

The stated long term goal of the Palestinians, is displacement of Israel with a Palestinian state.

A spokesman for Fatah leader, Mahmoud Abbas, has gone on record in declaring that any peace concessions are merely a ruse, a staging point for future gains against Israel. They are intent on taking Israel bit-by-bit, inch-by-inch, stone-by-stone and now occupy 22% of "Palestine", bringing them ever closer to a major push.

A thin slither of land conceded to Israel in 1948, by the UN, is all that the Jews have. It is legally theirs. It is also their timeless heritage. They have always lived there and will never give up their heritage.

Hosni Mubarak of Egypt has been a long term ally of the Palistinian cause, funneling arms via the Sinai and the Gaza strip, into Israel. The whole issue of Gaza could long ago have been resolved by its integration into Egypt, had Egypt not been so preoccupied with using the Palestinians to further their own agenda.The recent border incursions were also resisted by Egypt, to ensure that the pressure within Palestinian enclaves is not released.

They are pushing the anti-Israel agenda from their side as readily as Syria is pushing from the east and Lebanon from the North. Iran is also playing its part in maintaining a siege of terror against Israel and the bible predicts that the same alliance will rise against Israel.

The threats to Israel now include nuclear technology that could be converted into WMD's.

Not only have the Arab's openly declared their real agenda for Israel, they are actively building the means to do as much harm as possible in the advancement of their cause. How readily they call Israel racist, something that they specialize in, but what really amazes me is that the world is so inclined to take sides with their cause even though they negotiate in bad faith.

These events represent the countdown to a prophetic climax that will bring the world to a final great conflict.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

What is going on?

2008-01-31T02:55:00.001-08:00

The many hidden agendas and nuances in prevailing world politics, suggest that trouble is brewing..

The US government has raised concerns over Beijing's claims that Chinese military levels exceed self-defence requirements - rich coming from the US, but worrying nonetheless. Does China have a hidden agenda? Perhaps not so hidden is the reality that they are running out of land and resources, so may perceive the inevitability of expansion

A little to the North West, Russia is heading for the polls. Ex President Gorbachev feels that they democratic context is flawed and open to manipulation. Does Vladimir Putin have a hidden agenda? Is he ready to reassert Russian power and would there be any alliance with China? Certainly recent Russian military activities suggest a more aggressive stance. Their manoevres in the Bay of Biscay were, to put in somewhat crude terms, an "up yours" to Nato. Forgive me, but that is how brazen they are being.

In addition to raising the global ante, Russia is building dangerous strategic relationships with India (cooperating on the Mig-35 and other projects) and Iran (supplying fuel and otherwise protecting Ahmadinejad from the UN).

Now NATO has revised its nuclear stance. Admittedly they see value in the use of nuclear weapons only because of the threat of wepons being acquired and used by rogue agents and despotic regimes. But that is potentially a convenient pretext for anotehr hidden agenda. Is NATO preparing for a more aggressive world posture.

The US, never one to be left behind, is also getting uppity. Congress has been asked to vote billions of Dollars for military campaigns on Iraq and Afghanistan, but to fund that one can't help feeling that they are having to dig rather deep in their pockets. Nonetheless, with elections looming, the perennial hidden agendas of wanna-be presidents and their parties must be a factor of influence over the current US posture.

Meanwhile Pakistan, peace-loving Pakistan, is heading to the polls to decide who will be the future custodian of the nuclear arsenal that they have built at the cross-roads of current middle-east, Russian, Chinese and Indian tensions.

It does seem like a potential bonfire is slowly building up, but the flint, the wild card that could set the fire burning across the centre of the earth, lies with some or other extremist lurking in the muddy waters of middle-east politics.

Are there people mad enough to trigger a major war? Maybe. Are there people mad enough to go to war over the religious and oil stakes that have intrigued the world for the last few centuries? Most certainly.

So whose hidden agenda will be revealed first? Who will play the opening game? Right now that coudl well be Israel, given her growing vulnerability in the light of Iran's maturing nuclear program, a situation that the world is still musing over: at a time when Iran is close to that tipping point where the US would think twice about attacking for fear of the consequences.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

The brown heart of power

2008-01-30T01:18:00.000-08:00

Gordon Brown, the new British Prime Minister, plans to shake up the UN and position it as the vanguard of a new world order.

I concede that the meaning here is not intended to be specifically sinister, because he alludes to order in a chaotic world, using the UN to do what it was chartered to do. Brown makes the point that the UN is not punching its weight, because it is resource strapped and ill-equipped to deal with global crises.

UN peace-keepers serve a vital role in the world's hotspots, restoring order and peace with limited aggression. That is noble, because lets face it the world is full of mad despots who do incalculable harm to innocent lives and impose enormous social costs on the world.

However, the bible predicts a ten-nation confedaracy that would emerge from the old Roman Empire as the last great empire of world history. It will be dark, oppressive and mean, combining the traditional order and power of the Roman era, with the ruthless oppression of Nazi Germany and the imperialism of Napoleon.

Whilst Brown may well be searching for an alternative forum to the European Union, which has many sceptics in Britain, he is nonetheless sponsoring a cause that will control more than restore order, oppress more than regulate and offend more than help.

Brown wants to increase UN funding and bolster its military prowess in order to assert its will over nations: and that has very sinister undertones. Indeed it sounds like the spirit of Antichrist at work in high places.

Brown does want to expand the security council and is willing to dilute Britain's power base to a degree in order to coopt other nations and integrate the new power bases of the modern era. That is also meritorious as it will bring transparency and inclusion, but one of the goals of the Antichrist will be a one-world government capable of opposing the heavens, so integration may well serve that agenda.

These events and the rise of Europe, portend an awesome centralisation of power that could use all kinds of pretexts to control humanity: including global security, environmental concerns, corruption, global crime and economic instability. With the promise of order will come Big Brother controls of the kind that already plague post-911 Americans and Britons.

One of the greatest unifying factors is the precarious state of Middle-East politics, a context that threatens global security, world oil supplies, nuclear options, Chinese and Russian intervention and many other globally significant considerations.

Yet as the world converges, so the Kingdom of God is reaching full stature and His people are casting away differences to stand on common ground for the climactic chapter of World history.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

Dollar woes = world woes

2008-01-27T23:32:00.001-08:00

The US economy is sagging. Current efforts to ward of a recession include a 75 basis point reduction in interest rates and possible tax concessions that would cost billions of dollars. Such measures will do nothing to address structural problems in the economy and are likely to just lead to consumption of whatever relief is given to the public.

Barack Obama is campaigning to correct whatever is not working in Washington and it is evident the public, well the democratic constituency anyway, is right behind that idea. With almost 3,500 US soldiers dead in Iraq and many others wounded, at a cost of over $250billion, the current administration has done serious damage to the economy on the pretext of WMD's that evidently never existed.

The US has been the world's reserve currency for decades, having superceded gold under the Bretton-Woods system. This has provided America with significant levels of low-cost liquidity. But recently, nations have been diversifying their reserves away from the dollar, further undermining an already vulnerable economy.

US debt is fast reaching the size of the economy, at close to $10trillion. Economic contraction would probably close the gap quicker, but a run on US reserve funds could send the Dollar south and mortally wound the economy.

This is all happening at a time when Russia, sensing blood, is trying to assert its presence in the world arena, through active military exercises in NATO backyards. Russia is also pulling strings in the middle east, using the frothy-mouthed Ahmadinejad to front its ambitions. The bible predicted a dangerous alliance between Russia and Iran, but US economic woes provide a power vacuum that is advancing their cause and bringing the middle east closer to a dangerous level of military precipitation.

Can the US still maintain a buffer to military aggression in the middle east in these uncertain times: with diminishing financial options, elections and a loss of international influence?

Indeed, could the very peace that the US tried to preserve through its military activities, be lost to its own domestic problems and could it end up doing more damage to itself than extremists ever hoped for? I hope not.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

Pakistan, no threat

2008-01-27T02:55:00.000-08:00

Pakistanis are peaceful people. They are moderate Muslims, religious yet genteel. They have also eschewed radicalism and violence, siding with World powers against the Taliban and Al Quaeda.

Yet they have acquired weapons of mass destruction, nuclear technology and efficient delivery systems. They successfully tested a mid-range missile within the last two weeks.

Although they live at peace with their neighbours, they resent India's annexure of the Kashmir region. Part of the region remains under Pakistani control, with some even being controlled by China, but India controls the largest block through the act of a turncoat leader that illegally yielded power over the former British mandate, to India.

The Pakistani leader, General Musharraf has held power over Pakistan since a coup in 1999. He ousted elected leaders for corruption and legitimised his own rule by milking security issues.

However, the tide is slowly turning against him despite constitutional amendments that allow him to run for election, whilst restraining his natural rivals. It remains likely that power will shift and the concern of the west is that it could shift in favour of more dangerous, anti-western, radical Muslim elements.

As long as Musharraf holds onto power he risks becoming a catalyst for resistance, prompting moderates to find common ground with radicals. The concern put to Musharraf, by reasonably minded opinionists, is that their installed nuclear capacity could fall into the wrong hands. Musharraf refutes the idea and has tried to reassure the world that such an eventuality is remote.

The problem is that it could happen through a democratic transfer of power. Given enough political will and provocation, the people could side with more radical political views. That Musharraf would oppose such an outcome is beside the point, for no one individual was ever bigger than the state. There remains a real risk that the eastern pole of the Islamic axis could be nuclear tipped, placing strain and the risk of political opportunism in the way of all kinds of powers, including China.

The bible predicts that China would militarily engage the middle east, passing through the Kashmir, Afghanistan and Iran to ford the Euphrates, in Iraq. Could current events in Pakistan escalate into a dangeous trigger for a world-class conflict in the region?

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

... and the walls came tumbling down

2008-01-25T00:56:00.001-08:00

Hamas punched a few holes in the wall that defines the common boundary between Israel, Gaza and Egypt. The Gaza strip is also walled off from Israel, due to continued anti-Israeli violence emanating from the Palestian authority. Palestinians took advantage of the hiatus in its standoff with Israel, to do some shopping and visit acquaintances in Egypt.

Gaza dates back to antiquity. It was on the king's highway, linking the near east with Egypt and has thus rarely known much peace. Britain annexed the region during the First World War and Egypt occupied it up to 1967, after the Arabs declined to be incorporated into Egypt. Israel occupied the Sinai and Gaza from 1967 until recently, but through US and UN brokered initiatives, the Palestians eventually acquired regional autonomy.

Then an internal struggle started between Fatah and the more aggressive Hamas faction of Palestine, resulting in Hamas acquiring control over Gaza in spite of a Fatah political mandate under the leadership of Mahmoud Abbas. Hamas is a dangerous faction that has been denounced by the US and her allies, but they continue to stir the pot along the southern flank of Israel. Israel faces other threats from West Bank palestinians and from the Golan to the north, notwithstanding greater strategic threats from surrounding nations.

Egypt, realising that Gazanian forays across the border would release the political antagonisation of Israel, has historically refused any rights of citizenship or trade to Gaza and is now resealing the border to ensure that the area remains a flea in Israel's ear.

With limited world empathy for their very unfair position, Israel is increasingly strained in the defence of her hard-won sovereignty. Which of the many factors looming over her security will snap and when, is a question that significantly tests Pentagon planners and middle east peace. But a major war seems invetable, especially as nuclear options come into the mix.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

Stop that or else ....

2008-01-25T00:23:00.000-08:00

The UN has has drafted a special resolution, duly ratified by China and Russia, imposing a third level of restrictions on Iran. But Russia and China, both of whom have strong business and political ties with Iran, believe that such initiatives are tame. Indeed, given that the US has limited economic direct leverage over the situation, Iran holds the high ground.

What really rubs salt in the wound is that US intelligence has confirmed that Iran has suspended enrichment or weaponisation of fission materials. The result is an effective stalemate. Germany has aligned with the US to ensure Iranian compliance with UN resolutions, but even she has a conflict of interest due to large Iranian credit exposures.

All of this is shielding Iran from prosecution whilst she continues to be a threat to middle east peace. Russia has completed the 6th shipment of nuclear fuel for the Bushehr power plant, further displacing Iran's need to go it alone, but there is far more at stake here than power generation. Iran is dangerously ideological and capable of becoming a rallying point for middle-east ideologies.

The bible predicts an alliance between Russia and Iran, including other parties, collectively named, "Gog and Magog", a force that will evidently achieve military gains in Iraq pursuant to an assault on Israel. In support of its political aspirations, Iran has been a major conduit for military assistance to forces resisting US occupation of Iraq.

Currently the US is frustrated in its attempts to restrain Iran's ambitions, but economic recession and elections further restrain her options, providing a window for Iran to covertly reaching a tipping point: a nuclear posture that limits military action.

Will Israel allow justice to run its course or will she preempt Iranian nuclear ambitions? Both options involve grave risks for the region.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

Yeah right!

2008-01-19T02:04:00.001-08:00

A teacher was explaining to her class that in some languages a double negative is used: it is still a negative. Some languages have a negative and positive expression, as in "yes, no" meaning "maybe". Most languages make allowance for a double positive, which is an emphatic positive as in "Yes, Yes".

Then the teacher went on to say that no language has a double positive that carries a negative meaning, at which point a student, half dozing at the back of the class, said, "Yeah, Right."

Late last year Iran denied any agenda relating to nuclear weapons and UN watchdogs then confirmed this position by saying that Iran had long since abandoned the idea. Russia and China quickly jumped on the bandwagon, together with that clique of nations that always sides with insurrectionists. But the US stood back and said, "Yeah, Right" and soon the french chipped in with "Wee Wee", followed by Germany with "Yeah, Right". Israel just sat quietly nursing her strained patience to whisper, "I told you so."

So now, in the prevailing hiatus Russia is into its 5th nuclear fuel transhipment, whilst holding a large missile test and other war games in the bay of Biscay, right in the face of Nato nations. Nato has gone to alert status and, by way of an indirect response, has ruled the use of nuclear weapons back into its military doctrines.

Strange that Jesus said, "When they say, "Peace, Peace", then comes sudden destruction". The world may wish to deny the gathering war clouds over the Middle East, but military planners are quietly chanting "Yeah, Right". I say this not to be alarmist, for I hate war and regard it as the least creative form of human discourse, but there are very strong-minded and deeply incensed forces that could care less.

Unfortunately, in the middle of this whole mess is one small, vulnerable nation who cares so much about her dearly-paid-for sovereignty that she would have nothing to lose in defending her cause. Esau once sold his birthright to Israel (Jacob) for some stew, but is in no mind to return the favour: that tough, courageous nation occupying a small, barren stretch of real-estate at the fringe of the Islamic world, stands ready to hit back at any time her own safety is threatened and she will never give up her heritage. She also enjoys unprecedented US support: that is one reason why rising Islamic extremism threatens to push the middle east over-the-edge.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

Israel will not go quietly into the night

2008-01-18T05:05:00.000-08:00

The 1000 mw bushehr nuclear reactor is due to go online by Spring, thus anytime after March 2008. That would bring its nuclear program to a critical level. Certainly Iran might just settle for peaceful power generation, but Ahmadinejad has already nailed his color to the mast: he is not a peaceful man and has dangerous nuclear ambitions.

Israel, who enjoyed low levels of US Support in past decades, now has a 60% support base amongst US voters. That will defintely inform US foreign policy and give encouragement to the White House as it cranks up its anti-Iranian stance.

Yet, with or without US support, Israel must be close to losing patience with the serious threat to its national security. The risk that Israel may strike preemptively has US policy makers on the back foot, for they can ill-afford to have the situation spiral out of control.

The security instinct of Israel and the fact that they have nothing to lose in any future war against Iran, could drive them to unilateral action, which can only be averted by appropriate responses from the US. Currently that includes a political standoff, with the US challenging Iranian motives through the UN whilst visibly rattling their sabres.

As the temperature rises, in and out of Bushehr, UN member nations are being polarised by the US position, with many nations signalling opposition or neutrality on the need for military action. This puts the US in an inviduous position. Her war on Iraq, though widely condemned, did not meet any real military resistance. But Iran has Russian backing and that is a dangerous ingredient in this potentially lethal cocktail.

I would expect Iran to go be on full military alert in the Bushehr region up to and beyond the critical date, which places the entire middle-east in a state of political and military uncertainty: potentially aggravating prevaling tensions and galvanising extremist forces.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

Storm clouds gather

2008-01-17T05:09:00.000-08:00

In October I predicted that Iran would push back world fears by downplaying its nuclear ambitions. UN inspectors helped their cause by suggesting that Iran had only acquired nuclear technology for power generation purposes. I also predicted that the US would not back off, notwithstanding counter pressure from China and Russia (an Iranian ally).

With its large oil reserves, one has to feel that Iran has more than enough cheap energy resources not to have to incur the massive capital outlay required for a Nuclear plant - so one is inclined to raise a sceptical eye-brow to their allegations.

Even so, Ahmadinejad is hardly Mister Nice Guy and leopards do not tend to change their spots: except possibly through irradiation. He is a salivating ant-semitic with a long term agenda of fermenting war against Israel.

Neither Israel, who could be pushed to act on their own if need be, nor the US, have been suckered by Iranian charm offensives. After all, Iran is not merely acquiring conventional nuclear power, it has built the capability for enrichment and acquired other nuclear technology that takes their ambitions to a different level altogether.

Bush, who has had forces engaged in war games pursuant to an Iranian war, is expected to harden his position through 2008 - war is regarded as a likely scenario for Pentagon planners. But, aggression is bound to awaken the Russian bear and bring her out in defence of her Iranian cubs - of course a large oil prize underwrites the relationship.

So 2008 promises to be a water-shed year that has already driven the oil price beyond $100 in a period of global economic uncertainty. Why wait any longer to make a decision about your soul?

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

Assassination of Benazir Bhutto

2007-12-31T04:56:00.000-08:00

Benazir Bhutto, who served two terms as President of Pakistan after her PPP party won a majority to bring her to power as the youngest ever Pakastani premier and the only ever female Muslim national leader.

After charges of corruption were made and later dropped, Bhutto, a US ally, made a comeback bid. Ruling strongman Pervez Musharraf pushed through a constutional amendment to prevent a third term. However, given the illegitimacy of his own rule and the vulnerability of his political position, Bhutto still sought some kind of political mandate in the proposed January elections.

Her murder was claimed by Al Quaeda who regard her as a threat and a US stooge. Whatever the reasons, the fact remains that Pakistan remains in a dangeous state of flux, vulnerable to the rise of Muslim extremity in the country and across the border in Afghanistan.

If Pakistan should fall to militants, either through the ballot or violence, Muslim extremism will have acquired a significant nuclear capability. This aggravates the current status quo in the middle east and limits room for detante. There is a big storm brewing in this region that was indirectly predicted by the bible.

No wonder George Bush is rattling his sabre again.

Damned if we do, damned if we don't ....

2007-11-21T05:57:00.000-08:00

What if ....

... Israel does not react to Iran's nuclear program, and she will - would Israel then face a damnable position?

... the US ignores the need to restrain Israel, and she won't - would the US then need to act sooner rather than later or be damned for its hesitation?

... Russia backs Iran, and she does - then what risk does the US face if she attacks Iran against the wishes of the UN?

... China also opposes military action against a placatory Iran, and she will - will the US face the risk of provoking her nemesis and awakening the great sleeping dragon?

... Russia and Iran then conspire to attack Iraq and preempt US actions, as the bible predicts - would that compromise US strategic interests?

... Turkey then crosses the Iraqi border to open a new front in the middle east, and she probably will - would that drag Europe into the melting pot?

... Pakistan then also succeeds in unifying Islamic extremism through its political stalemate, and that is a real possibility - could that trigger a dangerous chain reaction at the nuclear end of the Islamic axis?

... all of the players then decided to abandon their private agendas for the sake of peace, an unlikely scenario - would that not just delay the inevitable collision of competing interests?

... some misguided fool sets light to the whole tinderbox, and there are a few that come to mind - would the world's great fire brigade, the US, get there before the world catches fire.

And if peace is then unlikely, and it is, then is the world on the edge of a precipice .... ?

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

Lets spin this another way ....

2007-11-20T11:50:00.000-08:00

The Iranian government is trying to woo the UN with an apparent willingness to talk about its nuclear program. Their transparency has reinforced Chinese and Russian support, much to the chagrin of the US. Other nations could also moderate their approach, if diplomacy prevails.

Of course, the US is not about to be misled by what is nothing other than a sophisticated stalling tactic.

The map (source: Bellona.org), reflects a determined plan to weaponise Iran: it would be foolhardy to underestimate their somewhat obvious intentions.

If the Iranians can buy enough time to develop a bomb, they will gain significant leverage and begrudging respect from their enemies. Thus even North Korea restrained the mighty US when they last rattled their own nuclear sabres. No US politician relishes the idea of committing troops to a nuclear theatre, so Iran's current tactic is shrewd and frustrating to the US and to Israel.

The US is already engaged in Naval exercises to ready itself for an offensive against Iran. The plan appears to revolve around a bombing campaign using bunker busting, high altitude bombs and other sea-launched weapons capable of destroying Iran's installed infrastructure.

This approach would make optimal use of their technological advantages in terms of stand-off weapons versus the relative age of the Iranian airforce. It would also minimise costs and casualties, whilst preserving US options on a ground offensive.

The stated timeframe for an offensive is 8 to 10 months, but that is probably an outside estimate. There is great pressure to preempt further developments whilst walking the diplomatic tightrope - who will make the first move is anyone's guess.

If action is stalled too long, Israel will take the law into her own hands to mitigate a real and present threat. The US is also honour-bound to preempt Israeli action in return for their restraint in such a dangerous, heady environment.

It seems, therefore, that no matter how the world would like to avoid a further escalation of middle-east tensions, circumstances are contriving to drag a lot of reluctant and opportunistic forces into an unholy bunfight that could decide the fate of the world.

There are enough loonies in this scenario who would care nothing about mixing things up a bit, regardless of the consequences. Whether for religious, idealogical, economic, political or survival reasons, diverse forces are being drawn into the eye of the storm like moths are drawn to a light.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

Its Mr. Musharraf if you please ...

2007-11-19T06:26:00.001-08:00

The Pakistan Supreme Court, duly packed with pro-Musharraf judges, has voted to allow the general to be re-elected for another 5-year term: as a citizen. A key opposition demand has been his renunciation of military ties, so this is a partial victory for democracy.

Musharraf is, however, looking to have his recent election victory validated, thereby avoiding the polls in 2008. If successful, he will antagonise the opposition and reignite the fuse of sectarian violence. The greatest concern is that he is polarising the political landscape, whilst providing a rallying call for radical political elements, particularly those with ties to the Taliban.

Continuing instability in Pakistan will eventually provoke China and India (who account for 2.2billion people or a third of the earth): both are upscaling their arms capabilities:

India, when not testing its medium range nuclear missiles, is cooperating with Russia on the development of the Mig-35: arguably the best fighter in the world.
Chinese military power is rapidly expanding and extending its technological capabilities: as was shown recently, during US naval exercises, when a Chinese submarine surfaced near to a highly defended US carrier.

China will bide her time before flexing her military muscle, but her appetite for power, land and oil will be hard to ignore in the face of conflicting US, Russian, Iranian, Turkish or European ambitions. Declining political order in nuclear-capable Pakistan or a misguided foray into the disputed Kashmir region, will provide a strong pretext for the prophetic rise of China's 200million horsemen (a prophetic picture that alludes to the looming oil crisis).

The US is rightly wary of China, but the world needs to be wary of the gathering storm clouds.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

The case for a strong dollar

2007-11-18T10:05:00.000-08:00

US Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, addressing G20 finance leaders, stressed the value of a strong dollar and his optimism for a recovery of the green-back within the next 18 to 24 months.

The sober pragmatism of Bernanke is inspiring and I hope he's right. However, despite significant fundamentals in the world's largest and most diversified economy, the Dollar has lost significant ground to the Euro: which has the potential and a prophetic pretext for supplanting the Dollar.

Bernanke maintains the best intentions of a monetary authority, but his vision is out of kilter with the profligate fiscal policies of an administration that insists on funding expensive wars, costly social agendas and high deficits.

Dollar fundamentals have become moot as the US deficit edges towards the $10trillion level, but its strength is being undermined by other significant economic factors. In and of themselves these factors are not material, but if too many compounding factors coalesce simultaneously, a last straw will eventually break the camel's back.

The US has also been a major stabilising factor in global politics, but her influence is waning at a time when other global protaganists are exploring their options in the middlle-east.

Although the world hopes for alternative energy resources to save us from Mid-East dependencies, the bible predicts a world-level conflagration involving, at various stages: a dangerous Russo-Iranian alliance, a backlash against US occupation of Iraq, the eventual entry of China and India into Mid-East affairs and European engagement, possibly via Turkey.

(c) Peter Eleazar at http://www.bethelstone.com/

God is shouting

2007-11-17T22:14:00.000-08:00

God is not whispering or talking to the world, but shouting. War-coulds are gathering in the middle-east, the setting for the ultimate war of prophetic history. Economic crises are hitting the rich nations, particularly the US, at a time when the same nations are needed to stabilise the highly volatile middle-east.

If Vladimir Putin could be so facetious, he would say, "Tank you Comraad for de money", because US activities have driven oil prices up by almost three-fold, bringing a much-needed financial windfall to an otherwise stagnant Russian war machine.

Russia has now de-mothballed their strategic bomber fleet, resumed cold-war surveillance of western military defences, embarked on extensive military exercises and forged military cooperation agreements with India, the world's second largest nation. Their biggest foray into the mid-east is their not too subtle backing of Iran's Ahmadinejad, the reckless pretender to the nuclear throne of the mid-east and an anti-US protagonist in the current Iraq war: who would think nothing of stirring the pot in Iraq (with Russian help of course).

The situation is on a knife edge, with 25% of world oil reserves at risk in a dangerous game of cat and mouse politics.

(c) Peter Eleazar, www.bethelstone.com

Image: www.lifeboat.com

This fall .....

2007-11-17T07:56:00.000-08:00

What's this going to cost?

2007-11-13T05:33:00.000-08:00

Taking into account a direct cost of almost $900m for the Iraq war and other economic considerations, interest costs and the cost for lives lost, the total outlay for the last four years for the Afghani and Iraqi wars, comes to a mere $1.6trillion. Mr Bush sure knows how to spend, spending at a rate of roughly 200% of congressional budget limits.

To put this into perspective, the cost of these unwon, high-maintenance and very messy wars, exceeds $20,000 per US (four person) household. Not bad when you also consider that at over $9trillion, US public debt is now at $30,000 per US citizen.

Can the US really afford more war costs?

Well the middle-east war bill over the next 5 years, is projected to reach $3.5trillion or $40,000 per US household.

This all comes at a time when the US economy is suffering a huge mortgage default rate with over $1trillion in defaults against a $10trillion home mortgage market. That is a very material consideration in an economy that is reeling from declining dollar sentiments, dangerously high oil prices (close to $100 per barrel), profit shocks for major US multinationals (GM lost $39bn last quarter), increasing environmental costs, deteriorating political conditions in the middle east and UN leader Banki Moon's prediction that the world stands on an environmental precipice.

With 2008 being a US election year, the big strategic players couldn't hope for a better moment to exploit the fluidity of the middle east .... than in what is fast emerging as a highly significant period in world history.

The US has long been a moderating buffer to Russian and other expansionary forces in the middle east. I do not relish the thought of a Russian-Iranian alliance exploiting the dangerous power vacuum that has become Iraq, but its vast oil deposits promise an attractive return on investment for any well-timed military initiative.

(c) Peter Eleazar, www.bethelstone.com

Pakistan capitulates

2007-11-08T19:52:00.000-08:00

Pervez Musharraf has finally succumbed to world pressure and called for Pakistani elections in February. It is hoped that this has come in time and it probably has, because as a South African I have learnt that there is a lot of residual goodwill in people. So I feel that Pakistanis will bounce back, go to the polls, elect a new president and move on. I also feel that moderate Pakistanis will steer clear of radical elements and vote conservatively.

However, a tiger has now been stirred. Pro-Taliban factions in Pakistan and Afghanistan, whilst still a moderate threat in the overall context, are gaining ground. The arrogance of Ahmadinejad has emboldened extremists and brought them out of the woodwork. If the US successfully attacks Iran or the world persuades Ahmadinejad to back down from his nuclear ambitions, that would probably stifle extremists, at least for a while. But I doubt that Iran will ever back down and a US war, if it comes, might make things worse, as happened in Iraq.

From a biblical perspective, war across the middle east is inevitable and it will involve the major world powers, who will be drawn like vultures to the great feast of Megiddo. It is also quite obvious to most observers, that alignment of the Islamic world has been fermented by US activities and joining the dots between Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Turkey, Georgia and Pakistan, makes for a gloomy picture. These nations all have significant political headaches that could seriously shift the balance of power and stability of the Middle-East. Compounding the situation, various world powers have entered the game, which is frustrating US intervention and inciting radicalism.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

Quo Vadis ...

2007-11-07T23:58:00.000-08:00

The US needs monthly foreign trade inflows of $70 billion, to balance its current-account (trade balance). Japan and China, seeking to diversify their currency holdings, have withdrawn an unprecedented $165billion.

This vote of "diminished" confidence in the green back, severely knocked the US current-account balance. Bond yields rose sharply, whilst stocks on Wall Street dropped by nearly 4%, the 5th largest drop this year. The Dow responded to a basket of issues including a significant rise in the oil price to just under $100 per barrel, a $39bn drop in earnings for General Motors, Dollar sentiments and gloomy economic projections by the Fed.

At the same time, the US 5th fleet is undergoing naval exercises in preparation for a war on Iran, whilst Russian forces engage their own war games, including a revival of its strategic bomber fleet.

US wars have tended to coincide with the political agenda of the White House, but with presidential elections a year away, war is of limited value to the incumbent administration. Economic woes and congressional concerns about defence expenditure, could further frustrate any attempts to engage the US in Iran and Russia may well perceive a developing hiatus for a preemptive strategic initiative.

The US is in a tight spot: if it delays its planned offensive too long, Iran could acquire nuclear weapons. However, if it acts too early it could preempt a peaceful resoluton to the current standoff, whilst aggravating existing relatiosnhips in the UN and the middle east.

Iran is fanatical enough to front Russian ambitions for a strengthening of its hand in the region, but a significant oil prize in Iraq also offers as big an incentive to Russia as does Iran's scope for hitting back at the US.

This and other simmering conflicts across the region, including the nuclear ambitions of Iran and problems in Pakistan and Turkey, make for a heady mix of dangerous politics.

(c) Peter Eleazar at http://www.bethelstone.com/

A Cartoon perspective ....

2007-11-07T21:49:00.000-08:00

How the mighty have fallen

2007-11-07T02:47:00.000-08:00

After 911, George Bush looked to Afghanistan in anger and targeted the Taliban, who had offered refuge to Osama Bin Laden and Al Quaeda.

After half-destroying the country and uprooting the Taliban, the US failed to find Bin Laden. They seemed destined to admit failure in the region, just as Russia had done decades earlier.

But just when the attention seemed to shift towards Iran and Iraq, the Taliban re-awakened. Their resurgence is being spurred by the rise of pro-Taliban Muslim radicalism in Pakistan.

But now things have taken a turn for the worse. Forty people including six parliamentarians were killed in the deadliest car-bomb ever to have hit this vulnerable country. The Taliban have sent a very strong message: after years in the wilderness, events in the middle east now favour a comeback, an aggravating factor in a volatile middle-east melting pot.

Gold spiked on the news, by $25, whilst the oil price tested the $100 per barrel level for the first time ever. The world is on the brink of a major situation and the so called, "Axis of Evil' is now emerging as an East-West axis of Islamic radicalism.

The convergence of anti-western Islamic forces has been driven by common resentment of the US. The situation is drawing major powers closer to a middle-east meltdown and a tussle for the rich oil-prize it represents and its implications for the world economy. Unfortunately, some of those powers perceive some gain in exploring their strategic options, at the expense of the US.

Russia is manipulating its Iranian alliance and Turkey, by preparing to attack the Kurds of Iraq, is unwittingly opening the door for Europe to enter the fray. The sleeping giant of China is also waiting in the wings, but events seem destined to draw them in via the disputed Kashmir region, along the narrow Hindu-Kush corridor of Afghanistan, directly into the eye of the storm.

These are heady days indeed and a world crisis is at hand.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

Take sides, get set, go ....

2007-11-06T23:35:00.000-08:00

The Swat valley of historic Pakistan, has been under siege from radical Muslims for some time. Under the leadership of radical cleric, Mullah Fazlullah, who seeks to impose Sharia law, there have been a spate of riots, beheadings, kidnappings and suicide bombings. This is the stated pretext for the suspension of the constitution and implementation of a state of emergency.

The military authorities have been battling to suppress the situation and rescue Pakistan's moderate but religious culture from terrorists and extremists.

Unfortunately 80% of all Pakistanis are opposed to Musharraf's continuing military rule and they are tired of the incompetence of their political leaders. As a result Musharraf's hold on power is forcing even moderate Muslim's to find reluctant common ground with the radicals.

A power vacuum now exists that radicals are shrewdly exploiting to secure broad influence over Pakistan's 165 million citizens. The result is that the nation is gradually slipping into the Middle-East quagmire along with its nuclear arsenal, to provide radicals in Iran, Iraq and Pakistan with significant fire power in a future religious-military confrontation of Israel: a conflict which Russia seems all too keen to foster and exploit.

The timing for political manipulators in the mid-east chess-board, could not be better. US relationships with the international community are at an all time low, thanks to the follies of Bush, but the US is also caught up in its own preoccupations: elections, economic woes and a declining dollar. It seems that the time is ripening for an Iranian-led counter-offensive against US forces in Iraq, which would decide the future of Iraq's massive oil reserves and concomitant political power.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

Put a lid on it

2007-11-05T23:46:00.000-08:00

The repression of political freedom in Pakistan continues.

Political expression, freedom of movement, public discourse and the right to assemble has been suppressed by 63 year old military strongman Pervez Musharraf.

This is the third time that he has suspended the constitution to prop up his tenuous hold on power. He has also been on the receiving end of bad things, as when ex-president Nawaz Sharif, tried to oust him and even prevented him from landing at Karachi: disaster was averted in the nick of time by military intervention.

He came to power through a bloodless coup that upstaged an incompetent leader, Sharif, who himself was previously sacked by a constitutional intervention. Sharif was subsequently exiled to Saudi Arabia, although the Pakistan Supreme court has since ruled that his exile was unconstitutional.

Musharraf is pro-west and enjoys US backing, because he is opposed to Islamic extremism, took action against Al Quaeda and has extended the olive branch to Jews in his country. The problem he now faces is that suppression of the will of his people, for whatever reason, is creating a pretext for the very extremism he has tried so hard to prevent. This will draw a reluctant Pakistan straight into the middle-east equation as the eastern-most nation in the east-west Islamic axis. This will align them with Syria, Jordan, Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan, as well other Arab neighbors.

A highway through the disputed Kashmir and down the Hindu-Kush corridor, over the Euphrates river towards the battle plains of Armageddon, is now unavoidable and prophesy is falling into place as I write. Another front is opening in Turkey, who have amassed100,000 troops on the Iraqi border in preparation for an all-out offensive against Kurdish forces. Turkey is the gateway to Europe and Iran is already engaging Russia, a process that will bring Gog and Magog into the fray.

These are perilous times. The dollar is reflecting the anxiety of the free world, as it concedes ground to Gold, a process that is marginalizing US dominance of the region whilst domestic issues and upcoming elections take precedence. The world is on edge – great things are happening. How long it will take to mature is uncertain, but the next decade will introduce a global crisis to a world that is already reeling from environmental issues.

A blog on Gog and Magog

2007-11-01T23:46:00.000-07:00

References to Gog and Magog are found in the bible and the Qu'ran. According to Genesis 10, Magog was a son of Japheth, the youngest son of Noah. He ventured northwards after the great flood and populated Europe and Asia. The best reference to Gog and Magog is found in Ezekiel 38 and 39, where God specifically says, "Son of man, set your face toward Gog, the land of Magog, the prince of Rosh (Russia*), Meshech (Moscow*), and Tubal (Georgia*); and prophesy concerning him."

As later references confirm that these forces come from the North, it is assumed to refer to a people or peoples in modern day Asia, notably Russia.

In Ezekiel 28:6-9, the prophecy alludes to a conspiracy: an evil plan is hatched, to attack the unwalled villages of Iraq in collusion with Persia (Iran), Egypt (Phut) and other North African Islamic states (Kush).

When Bush attacked Iraq, it was clear that he would win the early battles but he then faced a long-term war of surpassing consequences. The prize must be Iraq's vast oil reserves (Brookings.edu cite estimates of 300bbl or 25% of the world proven reserves).

The removal of Saddam Hussein, despot that he was, has created a dangerous power vacuum in the region, something that Hussein's dictatorship actually held in check. Militant factions are pouring into that vacuum, resulting in a high-maintenance, unsustainable and immensely constly headache for the US. This, and the fact that the US is distracted by its own economic and political problems back home, provides a pretext for a significant power to exploit the situation.

The most dangerous wild-card in this is Iran and its leader, Time newsmaker of the year: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He is colluding with Russia on nuclear technology and Vladimir Putin of Russia has sided with China against UN condemnations of Iran. Iran also provides a radical front with an appetite for mayhem and the potential to galvanize Islam, in a war that would trade oil rights for the demise of Israel.

The spectre of Gog and Magog and all its implications for a significant world crisis is emerging through daily news coverage of this troubled region.

* The implication of Russia and its allies in this prophecy is sourced from broad, but technically unsubstantiated theological commentary.

(c) Peter Eleazar at http://www.bethelstone.com/

Ahmadinejad ... speaks for himself

2007-11-01T03:44:00.000-07:00

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (born October 28, 1956) is the sixth and current President of the Islamic Republic of Iran. He became president in 2005 , by popular vote. Before becoming president, he was the mayor of Tehran. He is the highest directly elected official in the country, but has less power than the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is CIC and has the final word in all aspects of foreign and domestic policies. Ahmadinejad is a radical, yet intelligent Iranian leader with the potential to rally Islamic radicalism across the middle east (Source: Wikipedia).

Here are some of his less subtle statements (not views I condone):

They have invented a myth that Jews were massacred and place this above God, religions and the prophets."
"We ask the West to remove what they created sixty years ago and if they do not listen to our recommendations, then the Palestinian nation and other nations will eventually do this for them."
"The real Holocaust is what is happening in Palestine where the Zionists avail themselves of the fairy tale of Holocaust as blackmail and justification for killing children and women and making innocent people homeless."
"The West claims that more than six million Jews were killed in World War II and to compensate for that they established and support Israel. If it is true that the Jews were killed in Europe, why should Israel be established in the East, in Palestine?"
"If you have burned the Jews, why don't you give a piece of Europe, the United States, Canada or Alaska to Israel. Our question is, if you have committed this huge crime, why should the innocent nation of Palestine pay for this crime?"

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

Pakistan applies the ban

2007-10-30T15:00:00.000-07:00

The suspension of the Pakistani constitution and implementation of a state of emergency, is intended to restore order in a politically troubled country - it probably will do just that and the calm disposition of neighbouring India and China bears testimony to that likelihood. However, it will come at a cost for history proves that supression of the people is a lost cause and the will of the masses will prevail - a timebomb is ticking that may eventually lead to major upheavel in the region.

The military rule of Pervez Musharraf lies at the core of the present crisis. The military maintains a powerful influence over the supreme court and any legal challenge to Musharraf's right to contest upcoming elections. However, the court must also reflect on a tide of popular dissention.

It is evident that militarism, political resistance and prevailing tensions with its Eastern neighbours, makes for a volatile environment is this powerful, nuclear capable country. Sooner or later, the underlying tensions will challenge international order and trigger more serious consequences for the region - consequences that are slowly drawing very powerful forces into the eye of a coming middle-east storm.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

A few bulls in a China shop

2007-10-30T00:57:00.000-07:00

Hitler's greatest concern was that the US would enter World War 2. Churchill's greatest relief was that they did, thus declaring after the bombing of Pearl Harbor, "Now we will win the war".

The greatest concern of G6 nations is that China may assert her styrategic position on the world, to satiate her increasing demand for power, land and oil. She has unleashed her economic potential but the same economic engine is funding a significant build up of military power, including nuclear capabilities.

The status in the mid-east has generally been one of Russia remaining neutral to US military activities, as happened in Bosnia and Afghanistan. However, the balance of power will shift if Russia strengthens its stake through Iran and China's demand for oil brings her into the fray. The trigger point would be a pretext similar to Pearl Harbor, that would push her restraints over the top and bring a truly awesome world power into contention ... the Kashmir may be that pretext, a trigger point for an Asian invasion.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

A bit of Kashmiri history

2007-10-29T21:48:00.000-07:00

In 1935, during the British rule of India, Britain compelled the Dogra king of Jammu and Kashmir to lease some of the Kashmir to strengthen the northern border with Russia.

When the 60 year British mandate over India ended in 1947, the entire sub-continent was partitioned into secular India and Muslim Pakistan, but the Kashmir stayed out of it. A dispute over taxes imposed by the King of Jammu and Kashmir, brought Pakistanis charging over the border, but to protect their interests, the Kashmiris aligned with India, a move that was never put to a national referendum. The cessation of Jammu and Kashmir, the largest blok in the Kashmir region, triggered a dispute between India and Pakistan, leading to wars in 1947, 1965 and 1999. Other skirmishes have also happened, but now a nuclear standoff prevails.

China also has a stake in the Kashmir, the Trans-Karakoram Tract, also known as Shaksam Valley, which was ceded to it by Pakistan in 1963. This led to an Indo-China war in 1962.

The upshot of all of this is that the Kashmir is like a dam wall, that must eventually break and cause an outpouring of the kings of the east into the middle east, via the Hindu-Kush corridor.

Source of content and Kashmir map: wikipedia

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

A highway, a fuse, a spark .... trouble is stirring

2007-10-29T20:51:00.000-07:00

The hindu-cush corridor reflects the finger of God, for it is a highway that would bring the Asian nations to the climactic judgement of the ages, at Armageddon. It is part of a complex puzzle that will also drag other nations into a middle-eastern cauldron, but Revelation 9:16 speaks of an army of 200 million horsemen crossing the Euphrates river, in Iraq. What would trigger such an action?

One notable trigger lies at the gateway to the Hindu-Kush corridor, the disputed Kashmir region of northern India. India has gone to war four times since 1947 over its majority claim to a region contested by China, India and Pakistan. India and Pakistan have recently developed and tested medium-range nuclear missiles as a threat to each other.

Should the tensions explode, China would have to intervene, triggering a domino effect that would bring them into the conflict, much the way that Pearl Harbor triggered US entry into World War 2.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

The finger of God

2007-10-29T02:39:00.000-07:00

Afghanistan was the first post 911 target in the US war on terror. It was controlled by a despotic, Islamic extremist goverment, the Taliban, until a US-led invasion brought an end to their rule.

Although a poor country, it will be a critical trigger-point for a future world war. The eastern border tapers off into the narror Hindu-Cush corridor, which flanks the Hindu-Cush mountain range.

The corridor cuts through other nations to form a gateway for a bible predicted army of 200 million horesemen, the might of China. It is as if the finger of God deliberately drew a line across the map, so strategic is the corridor. Here the kings of the east will pour out of Asia and cross the Euphrates river, the cradle of humankind, en-route to Israel.

Map source: National Geographic

A slow route to China

2007-10-29T02:17:00.000-07:00

The map shows the Islamic world in light grey. It borders some of the hottest real-estate on earth. Russia is to the North, Europe to the North-West, China and India to the East.

When the bible predicted a war of nations (Armageddon) in the middle east, it rightly anticipated that the region would represent a global majority, at over 3 billion inhabitants.

What most have in common is land constraints, high demands for oil and food, increasingly restless populations and a shared protaganist, the US. This is a powder keg and the fuse now runs from China to the gates of Israel. It would take a political spark for the region to explode.

Whilst the current focus of the world is on the growing romance between Russia and her very demanding, single-minded Iranian side-kick, the stage is set for a meltdown involving the vast masses that live in the region and account for the majority of the earth's population.

Map source: http://graphicmaps.com/webimage/countrys/me.htm

Islam gets horizontal

2007-10-28T23:43:00.000-07:00

The traditional islamic axis stretched from Iran down through the Arabian peninsula and north Africa, down to Libya. By this I not only implicate Islamic nations, as such, but anti-western, militant Islamic powers.

Libya recently shifted its idealogical stance to become neutral, at least, pro-western at best. That takes out the Southern limits of the old axis. Other african countries have also petered out, whilst countries in the North have started to realign along an East-West axis, stretching from Afghanistan and Pakistan in the East, to Jordan and Syria, the nearest neighbours of Israel.

US foreign policy has been a significant catalyst for these shifts, but it opens a corridor to the kings of the east (China) and the climactic conflict of the age - armageddon.

Warming up the cold war

2007-10-28T21:50:00.000-07:00

Washington leaders are examining the biblical account of Gog and Magog to assist them in interpreting an emerging alliance between Russia and Iran. This, combined with Ahmadinejad's nuclear pretensions, has stirred up middle east tensions to the point where Ehud Olmert, Israeli Prime Minister, has said that the third world war is likely to be a mid east war involving Gog and Magog.

To add fuel to the fire Russian and US forces are rattling their sabres as they play war games. Manoevres currently underway are part of a growing psychological war between the US and Russia at a time when the US economy and national leadership is weakening. It is no coincidence then that an ideological nation like Russia should choose a ripe moment and an increasingly influential mid-east front to reclaim its political status. The standoff between Russia and the US portends another cold war.

So what's new ....

2007-10-20T17:59:00.000-07:00