Is the US preparing for war against Iran and would she be able to respond to any preemptive threats?
A brief misreport of a buildup of US forces along the Iranian border, presumably due to a typographical error on the part of a reporter, sent minor shock waves through the newswires. The report related to a 2007 event.
However, there is no doubt that the US has been bolstering its Iraqi presence. US commanders have strongly confirmed that this will not be diluted in the foreseeable future. There is nothing sinister in this for the US recognizes the need for military power to restrain subversion and terrorism. Withdrawal would almost certainly plunge the Iraq and the region into calamity, reversing all the gains made by the US thus far.
Nonetheless, presidential candidates in the current White House race, have hotly debated and even promised a review of troop deployments in Iraq. This brings a degree of uncertainty to a troubled part of the world at a time when the US military presence in Iraq continues to provide a vital restraint to Iranian aggression.
Israeli intelligence believes that Iran has acquired nuclear technology from North Korea and the Israeli defense force has made it very clear that if the threat to Israel becomes untenable, appropriate military action will be forthcoming.
The vulnerability of Israel and the ongoing support of Iraqi terrorism by Iran, combined with world concerns about Iran’s nuclear program, make it difficult to rule out future military action. Last year, Pentagon spokesmen indicated that action could start in the first or second quarter of 2008: naval exercises confirmed US preparedness.
What is worrying though, is that circumstances could favor a preemptive move on the part of a Russian-backed Iran. The US may be very vulnerable in the run up to elections, due to political distraction. Americans have also got other distractions, with an economy that is now so contracted that food stamp issues are at their highest since the 1960’s. In addition, there is evidence that at least half of the US F-15 strike capability is grounded due to mid-air failures and the much-vaunted F-22 program seems to have hit a mountain of snags that threaten to delay the roll-out of the air-superiority fighter. Besides anything else, the huge cost of ongoing militarism in Iraq and Afghanistan is becoming prohibitive to a cash-strapped economy.
In contrast to all this, Russian imperialism is surging and cold-war postures are evident. Russia is also facing an economic windfall from oil prices, which have again surged to $109 per barrel. Putin, who had to stand down and make way for a new president, due to constitutional requirements, retains a significant grip on power that is worrying and frustrating to US policy makers. Russia is also increasing its military capabilities, testing its technologies and, unlike the F-22, its own Mig-35 air-superiority fighter is alive and well, flying high in both Russia and India (licensed to build F-35’s).
So the mid-east remains on the edge and the threat of an unexpected or foolhardy incident in a very dry tinder-box, hangs like the sword of Damocles over the whole region.
(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com
However, there is no doubt that the US has been bolstering its Iraqi presence. US commanders have strongly confirmed that this will not be diluted in the foreseeable future. There is nothing sinister in this for the US recognizes the need for military power to restrain subversion and terrorism. Withdrawal would almost certainly plunge the Iraq and the region into calamity, reversing all the gains made by the US thus far.
Nonetheless, presidential candidates in the current White House race, have hotly debated and even promised a review of troop deployments in Iraq. This brings a degree of uncertainty to a troubled part of the world at a time when the US military presence in Iraq continues to provide a vital restraint to Iranian aggression.
Israeli intelligence believes that Iran has acquired nuclear technology from North Korea and the Israeli defense force has made it very clear that if the threat to Israel becomes untenable, appropriate military action will be forthcoming.
The vulnerability of Israel and the ongoing support of Iraqi terrorism by Iran, combined with world concerns about Iran’s nuclear program, make it difficult to rule out future military action. Last year, Pentagon spokesmen indicated that action could start in the first or second quarter of 2008: naval exercises confirmed US preparedness.
What is worrying though, is that circumstances could favor a preemptive move on the part of a Russian-backed Iran. The US may be very vulnerable in the run up to elections, due to political distraction. Americans have also got other distractions, with an economy that is now so contracted that food stamp issues are at their highest since the 1960’s. In addition, there is evidence that at least half of the US F-15 strike capability is grounded due to mid-air failures and the much-vaunted F-22 program seems to have hit a mountain of snags that threaten to delay the roll-out of the air-superiority fighter. Besides anything else, the huge cost of ongoing militarism in Iraq and Afghanistan is becoming prohibitive to a cash-strapped economy.
In contrast to all this, Russian imperialism is surging and cold-war postures are evident. Russia is also facing an economic windfall from oil prices, which have again surged to $109 per barrel. Putin, who had to stand down and make way for a new president, due to constitutional requirements, retains a significant grip on power that is worrying and frustrating to US policy makers. Russia is also increasing its military capabilities, testing its technologies and, unlike the F-22, its own Mig-35 air-superiority fighter is alive and well, flying high in both Russia and India (licensed to build F-35’s).
So the mid-east remains on the edge and the threat of an unexpected or foolhardy incident in a very dry tinder-box, hangs like the sword of Damocles over the whole region.
(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com
No comments:
Post a Comment