Iran has little intention of backing down on its nuclear program - it may be worse than we thought.
We know that Russia and China are gladly siding with Iran. Russia is also providing them with enriched fuel. On the eve of Russian elections, other concerns about Russia’s posture are also emerging.
Russia seems to be shifting towards a cold war stance, whilst duping the Russian electorate into giving Putin an extended mandate. So the worrisome alliance with Iraq is not just an inconvenience: it has serious implications for global peace.
But, if that is worrying so is the fact that Germany, France and Britain are sitting on the fence about the imposition of sanctions, partly because of their own credit exposures. This notwithstanding Israeli and US concerns about Iran’s position and the intractability of their leader.
The UN was reliably advised, by the US intelligence community, that Iran stopped its weapons program in 2003. But now it seems that this was a clever smoke screen. The really tough part of a weapons program is the enrichment process, which uses hundreds of temperamental, high speed centrifuges to yield small quantities of enriched product.
The easy part of bomb making comes after the enrichment cycle and can be concluded within months. So it may no difference to Iran’s timetable to delay its bomb making activities until it had accumulated sufficient enriched fuel reserves.
Now the highly credible International Atomic Energy Agency has voiced concerns about suspicious activities relating to uranium conversion, the design and testing of nuclear warheads and delivery systems and the manufacture of high-explosive detonators for use in warheads. It seems that Iran has just been stringing the world along and that US and Israeli concerns were valid. But, as Israel recently observed, it is almost too late to act for once Iran is armed, action against them will be that more challenging. This situation is not far from reaching a critical tipping point.
In the midst of these dangerous developments, Israel is also gearing up for a full scale war against the Palestinians in Gaza. The ordinance flying over the border is now reaching serious levels, so Israeli action is imminent. This could put Israel on a collision course with the Islamic world that, once started, would be hard to stop short of using the moment to defuse the growing threat to the east.
Recent history suggests that Israel is very calculated in her military initiatives, largely because of world censure. As such they tend to try and do as much as possible within a very limited window of opportunity. Typically, they would have to conclude their operations within two to three weeks and then withdraw, but without the embarrassment of recent campaigns that fizzled into awkward stalemates where the enemy was neither routed nor dissuaded from its ongoing missile attacks against Israel.
These developments are curtain raisers for what could lead to a serious chain reaction in middle-east affairs. Russia is waiting for a pretext to engage the region, which might well come in the form of a military threat to their stake in Iran. This could come at a time when the US is in a state of flux due to domestic distractions. Three US warships have been moved toward the Israeli coast to monitor rising tensions between Israel and Gaza, but that might just be a pretext to lend some legitimacy to Israeli actions.
This is a really tough time for Israel as she is threatened on every flank by forces that have clearly declared their intention of crushing the Jewish state. That threat has hung of the Promised Land for decades, but now there are new and deeply disturbing threats emerging that limit peaceful options. Timing is critical if Israel wants to prevent a shift in the fine balance of power that keeps the middle-East from tearing apart.
Israel cannot afford to lose even a single war without exposing its population to genocide and its nationhood to politicide. Wars waged against Israel are wars of extermination that target its cities and population centers. Its enemies are seeking its total destruction ~ Alan Dershowitz.
We know that Russia and China are gladly siding with Iran. Russia is also providing them with enriched fuel. On the eve of Russian elections, other concerns about Russia’s posture are also emerging.
Russia seems to be shifting towards a cold war stance, whilst duping the Russian electorate into giving Putin an extended mandate. So the worrisome alliance with Iraq is not just an inconvenience: it has serious implications for global peace.
But, if that is worrying so is the fact that Germany, France and Britain are sitting on the fence about the imposition of sanctions, partly because of their own credit exposures. This notwithstanding Israeli and US concerns about Iran’s position and the intractability of their leader.
The UN was reliably advised, by the US intelligence community, that Iran stopped its weapons program in 2003. But now it seems that this was a clever smoke screen. The really tough part of a weapons program is the enrichment process, which uses hundreds of temperamental, high speed centrifuges to yield small quantities of enriched product.
The easy part of bomb making comes after the enrichment cycle and can be concluded within months. So it may no difference to Iran’s timetable to delay its bomb making activities until it had accumulated sufficient enriched fuel reserves.
Now the highly credible International Atomic Energy Agency has voiced concerns about suspicious activities relating to uranium conversion, the design and testing of nuclear warheads and delivery systems and the manufacture of high-explosive detonators for use in warheads. It seems that Iran has just been stringing the world along and that US and Israeli concerns were valid. But, as Israel recently observed, it is almost too late to act for once Iran is armed, action against them will be that more challenging. This situation is not far from reaching a critical tipping point.
In the midst of these dangerous developments, Israel is also gearing up for a full scale war against the Palestinians in Gaza. The ordinance flying over the border is now reaching serious levels, so Israeli action is imminent. This could put Israel on a collision course with the Islamic world that, once started, would be hard to stop short of using the moment to defuse the growing threat to the east.
Recent history suggests that Israel is very calculated in her military initiatives, largely because of world censure. As such they tend to try and do as much as possible within a very limited window of opportunity. Typically, they would have to conclude their operations within two to three weeks and then withdraw, but without the embarrassment of recent campaigns that fizzled into awkward stalemates where the enemy was neither routed nor dissuaded from its ongoing missile attacks against Israel.
These developments are curtain raisers for what could lead to a serious chain reaction in middle-east affairs. Russia is waiting for a pretext to engage the region, which might well come in the form of a military threat to their stake in Iran. This could come at a time when the US is in a state of flux due to domestic distractions. Three US warships have been moved toward the Israeli coast to monitor rising tensions between Israel and Gaza, but that might just be a pretext to lend some legitimacy to Israeli actions.
This is a really tough time for Israel as she is threatened on every flank by forces that have clearly declared their intention of crushing the Jewish state. That threat has hung of the Promised Land for decades, but now there are new and deeply disturbing threats emerging that limit peaceful options. Timing is critical if Israel wants to prevent a shift in the fine balance of power that keeps the middle-East from tearing apart.
Israel cannot afford to lose even a single war without exposing its population to genocide and its nationhood to politicide. Wars waged against Israel are wars of extermination that target its cities and population centers. Its enemies are seeking its total destruction ~ Alan Dershowitz.
(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com
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