The pale horse of the apocalypse, is preparing to retaliate against profligate abuse of our planet.
European public health specialists have discovered significant resistance to potential bird flu drug Tamiflu, questioning its ability to treat the disease. Previous studies had indicated much lower resistance, but 13 per cent of H1N1 samples tested had the resistance-conferring mutation. The European Centres for Disease Control insist that the drug could still provide some benefits (source: Financial Times).
This comes at a time when the world’s largest nation, China, is reporting new deaths, whilst nearby Indonesia has now chalked up 100 deaths. This is a virus and thus unresponsive to antibiotics, but of concern is that the only available immune defense, Tamiflu, is no longer viable against avian flu.
The WHO warned that the latest outbreak of bird flu in India is far more serious than previous ones. "More serious risk factors are associated with this current outbreak than previously encountered, including that the affected areas are more widespread and because of proximity to extended border areas," they say (source: Agence France Presse).
This is another significant warning of a disease that is starting to bite. It is reaching levels in some areas that shift it from epidemic to pandemic status. All efforts have been applied to localize and contain outbreaks of Avian flu, but new risk factors indicate that the disease it increasing its footprint and spreading beyond local boundaries quicker than authorities can regulate. When outbreaks occur, preventive measures include the destruction of poultry and other bird stocks. That is okay for non-flying bird species, but action against wild birds will aggravate the contagion and spread it like wild-fire.
In India, chickens are just dropping dead and 400,000 hens have been earmarked for slaughter, but locals have somehow learnt to exploit the situation to buy cheap-meat. That is the surest way to get the disease into human circulation and it exposes 1.1bn Indians to serious risk of a major outbreak, in a heavily over-crowded country with diminished levels of natural immunity.
Although humans are reasonably vulnerably to infection if they come into contact with the virus, the greatest concern is that the virus will mutate into a more transmittable disease. That exposes global health to serious risks.
The disease is still infantile, having only accounted for 235 deaths since first reported, so current levels of indifference are somewhat understandable, but the way that the disease is spreading and forming new gene pools and establishing new vectors for transmission of the disease, is laying foundations for a runaway crisis. Any disease has a doubling period, the time it takes to double its levels of infection. Initially that period could be considerable, but with each generation it will become more resilient and widespread. That will reduce the doubling period until it crosses a threshold or tipping point that would cause it to explode.
European public health specialists have discovered significant resistance to potential bird flu drug Tamiflu, questioning its ability to treat the disease. Previous studies had indicated much lower resistance, but 13 per cent of H1N1 samples tested had the resistance-conferring mutation. The European Centres for Disease Control insist that the drug could still provide some benefits (source: Financial Times).
This comes at a time when the world’s largest nation, China, is reporting new deaths, whilst nearby Indonesia has now chalked up 100 deaths. This is a virus and thus unresponsive to antibiotics, but of concern is that the only available immune defense, Tamiflu, is no longer viable against avian flu.
The WHO warned that the latest outbreak of bird flu in India is far more serious than previous ones. "More serious risk factors are associated with this current outbreak than previously encountered, including that the affected areas are more widespread and because of proximity to extended border areas," they say (source: Agence France Presse).
This is another significant warning of a disease that is starting to bite. It is reaching levels in some areas that shift it from epidemic to pandemic status. All efforts have been applied to localize and contain outbreaks of Avian flu, but new risk factors indicate that the disease it increasing its footprint and spreading beyond local boundaries quicker than authorities can regulate. When outbreaks occur, preventive measures include the destruction of poultry and other bird stocks. That is okay for non-flying bird species, but action against wild birds will aggravate the contagion and spread it like wild-fire.
In India, chickens are just dropping dead and 400,000 hens have been earmarked for slaughter, but locals have somehow learnt to exploit the situation to buy cheap-meat. That is the surest way to get the disease into human circulation and it exposes 1.1bn Indians to serious risk of a major outbreak, in a heavily over-crowded country with diminished levels of natural immunity.
Although humans are reasonably vulnerably to infection if they come into contact with the virus, the greatest concern is that the virus will mutate into a more transmittable disease. That exposes global health to serious risks.
The disease is still infantile, having only accounted for 235 deaths since first reported, so current levels of indifference are somewhat understandable, but the way that the disease is spreading and forming new gene pools and establishing new vectors for transmission of the disease, is laying foundations for a runaway crisis. Any disease has a doubling period, the time it takes to double its levels of infection. Initially that period could be considerable, but with each generation it will become more resilient and widespread. That will reduce the doubling period until it crosses a threshold or tipping point that would cause it to explode.
(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com
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