Concerns about the nuclear activities of rogue states risks triggering fresh waves of proliferation.
Ever since Gorbachev introduced Perestroika, the world has come off the nuclear brink and greatly reduced its nuclear stockpiles. Although rogue nations have been building new arsenals, only the big six nations retained reduced stockpiles of fusion weapons.
Fission weapons are held by a number of smaller nations, including rogue states. Whilst they may do a lot of harm, they are generally tactical weapons with limited, kiloton yields, comparable to what destroyed Hiroshima. Fusion weapons, on the other hand, can deliver megaton yields. The largest ever US detonation was 15 megatons, but the Tsar Bomba weapon detonated by the Soviets, with a design capability of 100 megatons, delivered a 50 megaton test yield to make it the largest ever nuclear detonation.
The atmospheric detonation of the Tsar Bomba was large enough to make a deep crater of 1km2 that is still visible on Google Earth. It would have caused 3rd degree burning up to 100 kilometers away, with signification fallout across inhabitable areas.
New entrants to the nuclear club include Pakistan, India, North Korea and potentially Iran (North Korea claims to be building a Fusion weapon). The introduction of nuclear arms into the Islamic axis portends a serious shift in the delicate balance of power that has kept the Middle-East from disaster for over four decades. During that period a number of radical leaders have come and gone, including Khomeini, Hussein and Nasser, whilst Arab nations aligned with the Soviets, against Israel, in the four post-independence wars.
Iran is now advancing its own nuclear program as a front for Russian expansionism. This threatens to bring the world back to the nuclear brink. As Israeli leaders recently observed, Iran is nearing a point of no return where military options will be limited. Once armed, Iran would have the dangerous mix of lethal power and reckless leadership that could change the status quo in the Middle East and spearhead a potent Islamic alliance.
I don’t begrudge Islam’s need for an alliance – after all Europe has formed its own union and North America has NAFTO, whilst Western nations have long colluded via NATO. Alignment is about survival, economic participation and mutual defense against common threats. An alliance could well serve to bring rogue states to order and facilitate more effective dialogue. However, if such an alliance is vulnerable to the manipulation of powerful opportunists, like Russia, it could become a dangerous instrument.
Of more immediate concern is that western nations have become worried enough to review their own defenses. French President Nicolas Sarkozy launched France’s fourth ballistic missile submarine, Le Terrible, last week. At the launch he pledged to maintain a strong nuclear weapons program in order to defend his country against the threats of a nuclear-armed Iran. Sarkozy said, “While only major powers have nuclear power and the ability to reach remote targets, countries in Asia and the Middle East are conducting a “forced march” to acquire ballistic missile capabilities. Iran is also increasing the range of its missiles whilst grave concerns hang over its nuclear program”. (Reuters: France’s Sarkozy vows strong nuclear policy, 21 March, 2008).
In recent years, the US has been reconfiguring its own strategic submarine fleet to carry tactical weapons, but the return to cold war postures by Russia and reciprocal responses across the NATO alliance, threatens a renewed wave of nuclear rearmament. Indeed, the US is now talking about designing new nuclear weapons. This signals a dangerous trend in world affairs, because it puts the entire planet at risk.
The greatest risk, perhaps, is not that Iran may acquire fission weapons, but that they might trigger a runaway crisis through misguided use of a very dangerous weapon of war. Israel does have fission weapons, so does Russia, but other strategic stakeholders in the region could also be pushed over the edge by what might be a relatively small incident. The bible predicts that such events would lead to a world-class conflict on the plains of Megiddo: Armageddon is no longer a far-fetched, distant possibility.
Ever since Gorbachev introduced Perestroika, the world has come off the nuclear brink and greatly reduced its nuclear stockpiles. Although rogue nations have been building new arsenals, only the big six nations retained reduced stockpiles of fusion weapons.
Fission weapons are held by a number of smaller nations, including rogue states. Whilst they may do a lot of harm, they are generally tactical weapons with limited, kiloton yields, comparable to what destroyed Hiroshima. Fusion weapons, on the other hand, can deliver megaton yields. The largest ever US detonation was 15 megatons, but the Tsar Bomba weapon detonated by the Soviets, with a design capability of 100 megatons, delivered a 50 megaton test yield to make it the largest ever nuclear detonation.
The atmospheric detonation of the Tsar Bomba was large enough to make a deep crater of 1km2 that is still visible on Google Earth. It would have caused 3rd degree burning up to 100 kilometers away, with signification fallout across inhabitable areas.
New entrants to the nuclear club include Pakistan, India, North Korea and potentially Iran (North Korea claims to be building a Fusion weapon). The introduction of nuclear arms into the Islamic axis portends a serious shift in the delicate balance of power that has kept the Middle-East from disaster for over four decades. During that period a number of radical leaders have come and gone, including Khomeini, Hussein and Nasser, whilst Arab nations aligned with the Soviets, against Israel, in the four post-independence wars.
Iran is now advancing its own nuclear program as a front for Russian expansionism. This threatens to bring the world back to the nuclear brink. As Israeli leaders recently observed, Iran is nearing a point of no return where military options will be limited. Once armed, Iran would have the dangerous mix of lethal power and reckless leadership that could change the status quo in the Middle East and spearhead a potent Islamic alliance.
I don’t begrudge Islam’s need for an alliance – after all Europe has formed its own union and North America has NAFTO, whilst Western nations have long colluded via NATO. Alignment is about survival, economic participation and mutual defense against common threats. An alliance could well serve to bring rogue states to order and facilitate more effective dialogue. However, if such an alliance is vulnerable to the manipulation of powerful opportunists, like Russia, it could become a dangerous instrument.
Of more immediate concern is that western nations have become worried enough to review their own defenses. French President Nicolas Sarkozy launched France’s fourth ballistic missile submarine, Le Terrible, last week. At the launch he pledged to maintain a strong nuclear weapons program in order to defend his country against the threats of a nuclear-armed Iran. Sarkozy said, “While only major powers have nuclear power and the ability to reach remote targets, countries in Asia and the Middle East are conducting a “forced march” to acquire ballistic missile capabilities. Iran is also increasing the range of its missiles whilst grave concerns hang over its nuclear program”. (Reuters: France’s Sarkozy vows strong nuclear policy, 21 March, 2008).
In recent years, the US has been reconfiguring its own strategic submarine fleet to carry tactical weapons, but the return to cold war postures by Russia and reciprocal responses across the NATO alliance, threatens a renewed wave of nuclear rearmament. Indeed, the US is now talking about designing new nuclear weapons. This signals a dangerous trend in world affairs, because it puts the entire planet at risk.
The greatest risk, perhaps, is not that Iran may acquire fission weapons, but that they might trigger a runaway crisis through misguided use of a very dangerous weapon of war. Israel does have fission weapons, so does Russia, but other strategic stakeholders in the region could also be pushed over the edge by what might be a relatively small incident. The bible predicts that such events would lead to a world-class conflict on the plains of Megiddo: Armageddon is no longer a far-fetched, distant possibility.
(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com
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