Red flags waving

Sovereign democracy, as coined by Surkov, describes Russian political thinking under Vladimir Putin.

The term has noble inferences, but it is also used pejoratively. Russia is certainly democratic and constitutionally so. Under Vladimir Putin’s two terms of office, the economy has also grown significantly (8% up in 2007), notwithstanding a number of democratic concerns across society, notably low life expectancy and poverty. Putin has also used his office to exude a reasonably charming profile in world politics, engaging in major political events and mixing with world leaders.

However, as his second term nears its end, all kinds of misgivings are emerging. “Sovereign Democracy” appears to be a “take it or leave it” philosophy, in which the Duma applies a selective form of democracy. Any form of validation is perceived as hostile and press freedom has been severely muzzled under the same pretences.

Constitutionally, Putin must stand down, but technically he could stand down for the March election, take a "succession" break and resume his presidency at the end of his term in May. The constitution qualifies him for further terms, but limits him to two "successive" terms. For the March elections, he opted to push Dmitri Medveyev into the running, a move that is likely to shoe him into the hot-seat as a Putin stooge. For all western misgivings about Putin, he retains an, albeit diminished, 65% popularity rating at home – so consider Medveyev all but elected.

One reason for Putin’s popularity is the surge in the economy. Other reasons include national wariness with the west and with the western loyalties of former president Boris Yeltsin. Security issues may be a more prominent issue for the electorate, given concerns about NATO ambitions, Mid-East instability and the Chechnyan question.

However, there are dark undertones to all of this. Putin is showing some fascist tendencies. He has openly encouraged, what Russian liberals call the Putinjugend, a fascist jab that draws sinister parallels between the 120,000 strong, brown-shirted Nashi youth movement and Hitler’s own youth movements. Western analysts see the Nashi, the Youth Brigade and the Locals, as a drift towards fascism.

It is no coincidence that the same leadership has rattled sabers under the nose of NATO, by testing missiles in the Bay of Biscay and through large naval exercises. Russia is a resurgent force, equipped with large land forces, significant nuclear weapons and outstanding fighter aircraft. More recently Russian bombers were intercepted over the USS Nimitz near Japan, behaving in a very Cold War manner.

Given that Putin or his proxy could win the race for the Duma, alarm bells are starting to ring. It seems that the elections are being manipulated and certainly dissenting voices have been barred from TV networks. If the same leadership has ideological ambitions, there is great reason to be concerned. The rhetoric that is stirring the youth and the increasingly heavy-handed approach to matters economic and politic, signals a dangerous shift in Russian politics, a shift that for complex reasons seems to have the support of the masses.

In July 2007 Bret Stephens of The Wall Street Journal wrote: "Russia has become, in the precise sense of the word, a fascist state. It does not matter here, as the Kremlin's apologists are so fond of pointing out, that Mr. Putin is wildly popular in Russia: Popularity is what competent despots get when they destroy independent media, stoke nationalistic fervor with military buildups and the cunning exploitation of the Church, and ride a wave of petrodollars to pay off the civil service and balance their budgets. Nor does it matter that Mr. Putin hasn't re-nationalized the "means of production" outright; corporatism was at the heart of Hitler's economic policy, too."

The upshot of all this is a dangerous Russian-Iranian alliance, which the Bible predicted and named “Gog and Magog”. That same alliance has the potential to stoke middle east tensions and trigger a major standoff that would include retaliation against US occupation of Iraq and a much talked about foray against Israel, Iran’ great nemesis.

(c) Peter Eleazar at http://www.bethelstone.com/