Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Not that button stupid, the other ....

The US has placed Pakistan in the path of Taliban resistance. This puts its nuclear arsenal at risk.

The Taliban deeply resents Pakistani actions against the Taliban and the alliance of President Musharraf with the US, who is a product of US foreign policy.

The Taliban threatens a major retaliatory attack on Pakistan and extremist groups within the country are mobilizing politically and aggressively to oppose the regime.

US policy has put Pakistan on a dangerous path. They are a peace loving people, moderate Islamists who were even tolerant enough to democratically elect a female president, within a constitutional context. But Musharraf is a repressive leader, who came to power through a coup on the pretext of confronting real corruption in the government. He has manipulated the constitution in his favor, to extend his unwelcome hold on power and marginalize any opposition.

Due to the standoff with India, over the annexure of the Kashmir by that country, Pakistan has built nuclear weapons and medium range missiles. It has an advanced nuclear capability and is the only Islamic country with a significant nuclear arsenal.

The tensions between India are a simmering issue that could blow up eventually, but it is more likely that events inside Pakistan would be a trigger for a domino effect that would bring India, China and other near and fast east nations into a world-class conflict.

The CNS centre for non-proliferation studies, cites four risk areas regarding Pakistan. They are: (1) The potential impact of political instability in Pakistan; (2) the likelihood of nuclear terrorism; (3) the possibility of rogue military commanders or units gaining access to nuclear warheads or fissile material, and (4) the consequences of any temporary loss of centralized control over nuclear storage sites.

It is conceded by various watchdogs that the concerns around these issues are potentially overstated and Musharraf has been at pains to reassure the world about the security of their nuclear resources.
Nonetheless, Pakistan sits at the gateway to the great highway from the east that the bible predicts will be used by China to enter the middle-east fray. The highway passes through the narrow Hindu-Kush corridor, the thin strip of land reserved by the finger of God, that brings the Islamic world to the gates of China. The gateway is controlled by two arch-enemies, India and Pakistan and is under the influence of radical forces in Afghanistan: which adjoins the same critical region.

China, whose military buildup is now outstripping its defensive requirements has a desperate need for resources, particularly land and oil. So the bible correctly speculates that they will have a strong motive for a middle-east escapade. But Russian is evidently trying to steal a march on China through her alliance with Iran. Russian actions or Pakistani politics could be the trigger for a serious meltdown in that region, bringing the nations to an all-out state of conflict.

The biblical predictions (Ezekiel 38-39, echoed in revelations and the Q'uran) about Gog and Magog, predict a Russian-Iranian alliance (also involving other players), that will strike against US controlled Iraq. The US is heading into a serious recession and a state of flux due to elections, so may be sufficiently distracted to allow such opportunism.

Russia will conclude its own election season in March to extend Putin’s reign. Evidence points to underhanded political activities by the incumbent administration. These events suggest a potentially serious regression in the Russian political scene, conditions that could favor a return to its former ways. Could that embolden Russia to try and reclaim her strategic position, by having another go at the middle-east (they failed in Afghanistan)?

(c) Peter Eleazar at ww.bethelstone.com

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