Atishoo, Atishoo, we all fall down

If a pandemic flu should break out now, we would be ill equipped to deal with its all consequences.

Flu can be extremely virulent and pervasive. It infected 20% of the world and killed 20 to 40 million people in 1918/19. The agent of transmission for the “Spanish Flu”, was soldiers returning from the Great War.

But flu transmission rates would be far higher in the current era, due to global communications. An aggravating factor is global warming, which not only enhances the viability of bugs, also increases their range. No longer are viruses and bacteria limited to warmer low-lying ground, for they are migrating uphill to previously un-reached zones of the earth. Global warming also implies longer summers and a greater opportunity for bugs to multiply, migrate or mutate across wide areas of human habitation.

It is against this backdrop that Edmonton News, Canada recently reported on outdated vaccine stocks that would be ineffective against counter-therapies. European authorities have similarly reported the ineffectiveness of Tamiflu against new flu strains.

The avian virus has mutated and is continuing to mutate into more resistant strains. However, such mutations are regarded merely as pathological drifts or moderate adaptations. The question that haunts scientists and government authorities is, “how long will it take before these viruses experience a pathological shift into a human to human infection or, worse yet, an airborne infection?”

Even if new vaccines were to be developed now, we cannot hope to keep up with the rate of mutation. Indeed, we are even at risk to more conventional flu outbreaks, because antibiotics have a significantly diminished effectiveness against secondary infections. Flu generally passes quickly, but the mucous build up that results from an attack migrates to the lungs or sinuses causing complex, secondary infections that already have serious, often fatal implications for victims. If a far more aggressive avian virus were to become pandemic it would attack us through primary and secondary infections, but in both cases we would find ourselves very vulnerable and ill-equipped to cope.

Perhaps some first world countries will be better prepared for a pandemic, although Canada and Europe are as first world as you can get. However, they would be less prepared to handle a runaway crisis, because such societies are so dependent on organized systems and technologies that have undermined the survivability or adaptability of humans.

Third world societies, representing more than half the global population would have limited direct defenses against a pandemic. They would not be able to inoculate vast, rural populations and would be unable to withstand the rate of infection in crowded urban contexts. However, as those societies lapse into chaos, they would generally adapt better because they have lived so long in marginal environments. Many victims could recover quicker and experience better survival rates, although malnourished communities with highly compromised immune systems, would die like flies.

According to the book of Revelation, the fourth horseman of the apocalypse would have power to destroy a quarter of the world, about 1.5billion victims. Whilst avian flu might not be the only consideration here, an avian flu pandemic would certainly aggravate an already compromised world health environment and present authorities with enormous social consequences.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com