Friday, January 25, 2008

Stop that or else ....

The UN has has drafted a special resolution, duly ratified by China and Russia, imposing a third level of restrictions on Iran. But Russia and China, both of whom have strong business and political ties with Iran, believe that such initiatives are tame. Indeed, given that the US has limited economic direct leverage over the situation, Iran holds the high ground.

What really rubs salt in the wound is that US intelligence has confirmed that Iran has suspended enrichment or weaponisation of fission materials. The result is an effective stalemate. Germany has aligned with the US to ensure Iranian compliance with UN resolutions, but even she has a conflict of interest due to large Iranian credit exposures.

All of this is shielding Iran from prosecution whilst she continues to be a threat to middle east peace. Russia has completed the 6th shipment of nuclear fuel for the Bushehr power plant, further displacing Iran's need to go it alone, but there is far more at stake here than power generation. Iran is dangerously ideological and capable of becoming a rallying point for middle-east ideologies.

The bible predicts an alliance between Russia and Iran, including other parties, collectively named, "Gog and Magog", a force that will evidently achieve military gains in Iraq pursuant to an assault on Israel. In support of its political aspirations, Iran has been a major conduit for military assistance to forces resisting US occupation of Iraq.

Currently the US is frustrated in its attempts to restrain Iran's ambitions, but economic recession and elections further restrain her options, providing a window for Iran to covertly reaching a tipping point: a nuclear posture that limits military action.

Will Israel allow justice to run its course or will she preempt Iranian nuclear ambitions? Both options involve grave risks for the region.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

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