Pakistan, no threat

Pakistanis are peaceful people. They are moderate Muslims, religious yet genteel. They have also eschewed radicalism and violence, siding with World powers against the Taliban and Al Quaeda.

Yet they have acquired weapons of mass destruction, nuclear technology and efficient delivery systems. They successfully tested a mid-range missile within the last two weeks.

Although they live at peace with their neighbours, they resent India's annexure of the Kashmir region. Part of the region remains under Pakistani control, with some even being controlled by China, but India controls the largest block through the act of a turncoat leader that illegally yielded power over the former British mandate, to India.

The Pakistani leader, General Musharraf has held power over Pakistan since a coup in 1999. He ousted elected leaders for corruption and legitimised his own rule by milking security issues.

However, the tide is slowly turning against him despite constitutional amendments that allow him to run for election, whilst restraining his natural rivals. It remains likely that power will shift and the concern of the west is that it could shift in favour of more dangerous, anti-western, radical Muslim elements.

As long as Musharraf holds onto power he risks becoming a catalyst for resistance, prompting moderates to find common ground with radicals. The concern put to Musharraf, by reasonably minded opinionists, is that their installed nuclear capacity could fall into the wrong hands. Musharraf refutes the idea and has tried to reassure the world that such an eventuality is remote.

The problem is that it could happen through a democratic transfer of power. Given enough political will and provocation, the people could side with more radical political views. That Musharraf would oppose such an outcome is beside the point, for no one individual was ever bigger than the state. There remains a real risk that the eastern pole of the Islamic axis could be nuclear tipped, placing strain and the risk of political opportunism in the way of all kinds of powers, including China.

The bible predicts that China would militarily engage the middle east, passing through the Kashmir, Afghanistan and Iran to ford the Euphrates, in Iraq. Could current events in Pakistan escalate into a dangeous trigger for a world-class conflict in the region?

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com