The 1000 mw bushehr nuclear reactor is due to go online by Spring, thus anytime after March 2008. That would bring its nuclear program to a critical level. Certainly Iran might just settle for peaceful power generation, but Ahmadinejad has already nailed his color to the mast: he is not a peaceful man and has dangerous nuclear ambitions.
Israel, who enjoyed low levels of US Support in past decades, now has a 60% support base amongst US voters. That will defintely inform US foreign policy and give encouragement to the White House as it cranks up its anti-Iranian stance.
Yet, with or without US support, Israel must be close to losing patience with the serious threat to its national security. The risk that Israel may strike preemptively has US policy makers on the back foot, for they can ill-afford to have the situation spiral out of control.
The security instinct of Israel and the fact that they have nothing to lose in any future war against Iran, could drive them to unilateral action, which can only be averted by appropriate responses from the US. Currently that includes a political standoff, with the US challenging Iranian motives through the UN whilst visibly rattling their sabres.
As the temperature rises, in and out of Bushehr, UN member nations are being polarised by the US position, with many nations signalling opposition or neutrality on the need for military action. This puts the US in an inviduous position. Her war on Iraq, though widely condemned, did not meet any real military resistance. But Iran has Russian backing and that is a dangerous ingredient in this potentially lethal cocktail.
I would expect Iran to go be on full military alert in the Bushehr region up to and beyond the critical date, which places the entire middle-east in a state of political and military uncertainty: potentially aggravating prevaling tensions and galvanising extremist forces.
(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com
Israel, who enjoyed low levels of US Support in past decades, now has a 60% support base amongst US voters. That will defintely inform US foreign policy and give encouragement to the White House as it cranks up its anti-Iranian stance.
Yet, with or without US support, Israel must be close to losing patience with the serious threat to its national security. The risk that Israel may strike preemptively has US policy makers on the back foot, for they can ill-afford to have the situation spiral out of control.
The security instinct of Israel and the fact that they have nothing to lose in any future war against Iran, could drive them to unilateral action, which can only be averted by appropriate responses from the US. Currently that includes a political standoff, with the US challenging Iranian motives through the UN whilst visibly rattling their sabres.
As the temperature rises, in and out of Bushehr, UN member nations are being polarised by the US position, with many nations signalling opposition or neutrality on the need for military action. This puts the US in an inviduous position. Her war on Iraq, though widely condemned, did not meet any real military resistance. But Iran has Russian backing and that is a dangerous ingredient in this potentially lethal cocktail.
I would expect Iran to go be on full military alert in the Bushehr region up to and beyond the critical date, which places the entire middle-east in a state of political and military uncertainty: potentially aggravating prevaling tensions and galvanising extremist forces.
(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com
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