The Iranian government is trying to woo the UN with an apparent willingness to talk about its nuclear program. Their transparency has reinforced Chinese and Russian support, much to the chagrin of the US. Other nations could also moderate their approach, if diplomacy prevails.Of course, the US is not about to be misled by what is nothing other than a sophisticated stalling tactic.
The map (source: Bellona.org), reflects a determined plan to weaponise Iran: it would be foolhardy to underestimate their somewhat obvious intentions.
If the Iranians can buy enough time to develop a bomb, they will gain significant leverage and begrudging respect from their enemies. Thus even North Korea restrained the mighty US when they last rattled their own nuclear sabres. No US politician relishes the idea of committing troops to a nuclear theatre, so Iran's current tactic is shrewd and frustrating to the US and to Israel.
The US is already engaged in Naval exercises to ready itself for an offensive against Iran. The plan appears to revolve around a bombing campaign using bunker busting, high altitude bombs and other sea-launched weapons capable of destroying Iran's installed infrastructure.
This approach would make optimal use of their technological advantages in terms of stand-off weapons versus the relative age of the Iranian airforce. It would also minimise costs and casualties, whilst preserving US options on a ground offensive.
The stated timeframe for an offensive is 8 to 10 months, but that is probably an outside estimate. There is great pressure to preempt further developments whilst walking the diplomatic tightrope - who will make the first move is anyone's guess.
If action is stalled too long, Israel will take the law into her own hands to mitigate a real and present threat. The US is also honour-bound to preempt Israeli action in return for their restraint in such a dangerous, heady environment.
It seems, therefore, that no matter how the world would like to avoid a further escalation of middle-east tensions, circumstances are contriving to drag a lot of reluctant and opportunistic forces into an unholy bunfight that could decide the fate of the world.
There are enough loonies in this scenario who would care nothing about mixing things up a bit, regardless of the consequences. Whether for religious, idealogical, economic, political or survival reasons, diverse forces are being drawn into the eye of the storm like moths are drawn to a light.
(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com
If the Iranians can buy enough time to develop a bomb, they will gain significant leverage and begrudging respect from their enemies. Thus even North Korea restrained the mighty US when they last rattled their own nuclear sabres. No US politician relishes the idea of committing troops to a nuclear theatre, so Iran's current tactic is shrewd and frustrating to the US and to Israel.
The US is already engaged in Naval exercises to ready itself for an offensive against Iran. The plan appears to revolve around a bombing campaign using bunker busting, high altitude bombs and other sea-launched weapons capable of destroying Iran's installed infrastructure.
This approach would make optimal use of their technological advantages in terms of stand-off weapons versus the relative age of the Iranian airforce. It would also minimise costs and casualties, whilst preserving US options on a ground offensive.
The stated timeframe for an offensive is 8 to 10 months, but that is probably an outside estimate. There is great pressure to preempt further developments whilst walking the diplomatic tightrope - who will make the first move is anyone's guess.
If action is stalled too long, Israel will take the law into her own hands to mitigate a real and present threat. The US is also honour-bound to preempt Israeli action in return for their restraint in such a dangerous, heady environment.
It seems, therefore, that no matter how the world would like to avoid a further escalation of middle-east tensions, circumstances are contriving to drag a lot of reluctant and opportunistic forces into an unholy bunfight that could decide the fate of the world.
There are enough loonies in this scenario who would care nothing about mixing things up a bit, regardless of the consequences. Whether for religious, idealogical, economic, political or survival reasons, diverse forces are being drawn into the eye of the storm like moths are drawn to a light.
(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com
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