The Pakistan Supreme Court, duly packed with pro-Musharraf judges, has voted to allow the general to be re-elected for another 5-year term: as a citizen. A key opposition demand has been his renunciation of military ties, so this is a partial victory for democracy.
Musharraf is, however, looking to have his recent election victory validated, thereby avoiding the polls in 2008. If successful, he will antagonise the opposition and reignite the fuse of sectarian violence. The greatest concern is that he is polarising the political landscape, whilst providing a rallying call for radical political elements, particularly those with ties to the Taliban.
Continuing instability in Pakistan will eventually provoke China and India (who account for 2.2billion people or a third of the earth): both are upscaling their arms capabilities:
- India, when not testing its medium range nuclear missiles, is cooperating with Russia on the development of the Mig-35: arguably the best fighter in the world.
- Chinese military power is rapidly expanding and extending its technological capabilities: as was shown recently, during US naval exercises, when a Chinese submarine surfaced near to a highly defended US carrier.
China will bide her time before flexing her military muscle, but her appetite for power, land and oil will be hard to ignore in the face of conflicting US, Russian, Iranian, Turkish or European ambitions. Declining political order in nuclear-capable Pakistan or a misguided foray into the disputed Kashmir region, will provide a strong pretext for the prophetic rise of China's 200million horsemen (a prophetic picture that alludes to the looming oil crisis).
The US is rightly wary of China, but the world needs to be wary of the gathering storm clouds.
(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com
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