World food in crisis

A unit of wheat for a Denarius, three units of barley for the same – a world food crisis, is coming.

James issues a prophetic warning to the rich (I am not opposed to wealth as such, nor do I despise the rich per se, so here I refer to exploitation as that is the context of James’ message).

He says in James 5:2, “Your riches have rotted and your garments are moth eaten. Your gold and silver have rusted away.”

Never has this prophesy been more relevant than today. The black, third horse of the apocalypse, described in Revelation 6:5, comes onto the world stage carrying a scale, to measure out barley and wheat against Denarii (Roman money, a symbol of world money and its role in food trade).

In the past week a report appeared in local newspapers about the growing shortage of world maize stocks, because of the high opportunity costs of maize in the burgeoning bio-fuels industry. Producers can achieve 3-4 times the profit margin of food-maize and they are fast switching to that market. It is a simple fact of economics that if you can get a better price in an alternative market that is the market most will follow.

This is hurting poorer nations and the poorer they are, the harder they will be hit, for maize is staple to many poor nations. The price of maize has trebled in recent years, impacting heavily on those debt-ridden, marginal economies where the bulk of humanity lives (or exists). What is really tragic is that the poor nations cannot even participate in the economic opportunities that higher prices bring, because rich nations subsidize domestic production. This makes it unviable for the vast tracts of arable land in poorer nations to be developed to their potential as a global bread-basket.

The switch to bio-fuels is partly driven by environmental concerns although world hunger could devastate the global environment (hungry people will destroy society and the environment, whilst increasing the welfare burdens of the world). The more imminent driver of the shift to bio-fuels has been the steep increase in world oil prices, from around $30 per barrel at the turn of the decade to over $100 today. It is now a simple reality of survival for the rich nations. They cannot sustain their own economies, let alone feed the poor nations, without the life-blood of all modern economies: energy.

The oil issue is also threatening to push Mid-East tensions over the threshold because the opportunity cost of peace and stability is becoming too high in the face of rising demands for oil, aggravated by the threat of political opportunism. In simple terms the cost of fighting for Middle East oil is now being offset by the economic value of oil at its current market price and the cost of peace-keeping is being eclipsed by the value of winning the world’s most valued prize. Economics is simply driving the world to a fait accompli.

Russia and China are both pulling strings in the Middle East to secure their stake in oil markets and to exploit regional dynamics to advance their strategic ambitions. This reality is drawing the world powers into an inevitable clash on the plains of Megiddo where the last great World conflict is destined to happen. I suggest that Armageddon is no longer a far off figment of movie-maker’s imaginations, but an imminent threat to world peace.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

US buildup against Iran?

Is the US preparing for war against Iran and would she be able to respond to any preemptive threats?

A brief misreport of a buildup of US forces along the Iranian border, presumably due to a typographical error on the part of a reporter, sent minor shock waves through the newswires. The report related to a 2007 event.

However, there is no doubt that the US has been bolstering its Iraqi presence. US commanders have strongly confirmed that this will not be diluted in the foreseeable future. There is nothing sinister in this for the US recognizes the need for military power to restrain subversion and terrorism. Withdrawal would almost certainly plunge the Iraq and the region into calamity, reversing all the gains made by the US thus far.

Nonetheless, presidential candidates in the current White House race, have hotly debated and even promised a review of troop deployments in Iraq. This brings a degree of uncertainty to a troubled part of the world at a time when the US military presence in Iraq continues to provide a vital restraint to Iranian aggression.

Israeli intelligence believes that Iran has acquired nuclear technology from North Korea and the Israeli defense force has made it very clear that if the threat to Israel becomes untenable, appropriate military action will be forthcoming.

The vulnerability of Israel and the ongoing support of Iraqi terrorism by Iran, combined with world concerns about Iran’s nuclear program, make it difficult to rule out future military action. Last year, Pentagon spokesmen indicated that action could start in the first or second quarter of 2008: naval exercises confirmed US preparedness.

What is worrying though, is that circumstances could favor a preemptive move on the part of a Russian-backed Iran. The US may be very vulnerable in the run up to elections, due to political distraction. Americans have also got other distractions, with an economy that is now so contracted that food stamp issues are at their highest since the 1960’s. In addition, there is evidence that at least half of the US F-15 strike capability is grounded due to mid-air failures and the much-vaunted F-22 program seems to have hit a mountain of snags that threaten to delay the roll-out of the air-superiority fighter. Besides anything else, the huge cost of ongoing militarism in Iraq and Afghanistan is becoming prohibitive to a cash-strapped economy.

In contrast to all this, Russian imperialism is surging and cold-war postures are evident. Russia is also facing an economic windfall from oil prices, which have again surged to $109 per barrel. Putin, who had to stand down and make way for a new president, due to constitutional requirements, retains a significant grip on power that is worrying and frustrating to US policy makers. Russia is also increasing its military capabilities, testing its technologies and, unlike the F-22, its own Mig-35 air-superiority fighter is alive and well, flying high in both Russia and India (licensed to build F-35’s).

So the mid-east remains on the edge and the threat of an unexpected or foolhardy incident in a very dry tinder-box, hangs like the sword of Damocles over the whole region.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

Here we go again

Concerns about the nuclear activities of rogue states risks triggering fresh waves of proliferation.

Ever since Gorbachev introduced Perestroika, the world has come off the nuclear brink and greatly reduced its nuclear stockpiles. Although rogue nations have been building new arsenals, only the big six nations retained reduced stockpiles of fusion weapons.

Fission weapons are held by a number of smaller nations, including rogue states. Whilst they may do a lot of harm, they are generally tactical weapons with limited, kiloton yields, comparable to what destroyed Hiroshima. Fusion weapons, on the other hand, can deliver megaton yields. The largest ever US detonation was 15 megatons, but the Tsar Bomba weapon detonated by the Soviets, with a design capability of 100 megatons, delivered a 50 megaton test yield to make it the largest ever nuclear detonation.

The atmospheric detonation of the Tsar Bomba was large enough to make a deep crater of 1km2 that is still visible on Google Earth. It would have caused 3rd degree burning up to 100 kilometers away, with signification fallout across inhabitable areas.

New entrants to the nuclear club include Pakistan, India, North Korea and potentially Iran (North Korea claims to be building a Fusion weapon). The introduction of nuclear arms into the Islamic axis portends a serious shift in the delicate balance of power that has kept the Middle-East from disaster for over four decades. During that period a number of radical leaders have come and gone, including Khomeini, Hussein and Nasser, whilst Arab nations aligned with the Soviets, against Israel, in the four post-independence wars.

Iran is now advancing its own nuclear program as a front for Russian expansionism. This threatens to bring the world back to the nuclear brink. As Israeli leaders recently observed, Iran is nearing a point of no return where military options will be limited. Once armed, Iran would have the dangerous mix of lethal power and reckless leadership that could change the status quo in the Middle East and spearhead a potent Islamic alliance.

I don’t begrudge Islam’s need for an alliance – after all Europe has formed its own union and North America has NAFTO, whilst Western nations have long colluded via NATO. Alignment is about survival, economic participation and mutual defense against common threats. An alliance could well serve to bring rogue states to order and facilitate more effective dialogue. However, if such an alliance is vulnerable to the manipulation of powerful opportunists, like Russia, it could become a dangerous instrument.

Of more immediate concern is that western nations have become worried enough to review their own defenses. French President Nicolas Sarkozy launched France’s fourth ballistic missile submarine, Le Terrible, last week. At the launch he pledged to maintain a strong nuclear weapons program in order to defend his country against the threats of a nuclear-armed Iran. Sarkozy said, “While only major powers have nuclear power and the ability to reach remote targets, countries in Asia and the Middle East are conducting a “forced march” to acquire ballistic missile capabilities. Iran is also increasing the range of its missiles whilst grave concerns hang over its nuclear program”. (Reuters: France’s Sarkozy vows strong nuclear policy, 21 March, 2008).

In recent years, the US has been reconfiguring its own strategic submarine fleet to carry tactical weapons, but the return to cold war postures by Russia and reciprocal responses across the NATO alliance, threatens a renewed wave of nuclear rearmament. Indeed, the US is now talking about designing new nuclear weapons. This signals a dangerous trend in world affairs, because it puts the entire planet at risk.

The greatest risk, perhaps, is not that Iran may acquire fission weapons, but that they might trigger a runaway crisis through misguided use of a very dangerous weapon of war. Israel does have fission weapons, so does Russia, but other strategic stakeholders in the region could also be pushed over the edge by what might be a relatively small incident. The bible predicts that such events would lead to a world-class conflict on the plains of Megiddo: Armageddon is no longer a far-fetched, distant possibility.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

A world on fire

Who started the fire? Billy Joel? Marilyn Monroe? All I want to know is how we plan to stop the fire.

In recent weeks I have reported on the increasingly dangerous stance of Iran, Syria and the Palestinian occupied territories. I have shown how Russia is not only returning to her cold War stance, but is also pulling strings in the Middle East.

These developments are have dangerously swung Islamic fundamentalism from a North-South axis (Iran to Libya) to an East-West axis that stretches from the gates of China, in Afghanistan, to the borders of Israel. Revelation 9:16 predicts that 200million horsemen (of China), will take that route across the Euphrates, into the plains of Megiddo.

Coincidentally, the US economy is also worrying vulnerable. The recent fire sale of Bear Stearns is just the tip of the iceberg. Sub-prime issues have recently led to fiscal alleviation of distressed homeowners, federal support of the financial system, a sharp drop in interest rates and now a 75 point drop in Fed investment rates. At the same time the US deficit is at or near the $10trillion level, exceeding 75% of the US GDP - but as recession bites the gap will narrow even further. Of course the US government remains deeply perturbed about a Mid-East meltdown and has committed additional resources to Iraq and Afghanistan whilst trying to restrain Israel from a preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear threat, but with so many domestic distractions, can she follow through?

Russia is shrewdly pulling strings without risking a direct regional confrontation with the US, but while she is strengthening her strategic position, she is also carefully selecting a ripe moment to seize the initiative and pounce on the opportunity to secure a significant stake in the Middle-East. To make matters worse, Russia has experienced a windfall from soaring oil prices, which has boosted her swagger: resulting in some significant saber-rattling including an upcoming May-Day military parade.

Now add to this heady mix the fact that China, on the other side of the Hindu-Kush gateway to the region, is significantly strengthening her military prowess whilst asserting her might against Tibet and Taiwan.

Slap bang in the middle of all of this, is a moderate Islamic state with a large nuclear missile force and an even larger political crisis.

President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan still retains power, but a new prime minister is about to be announced by the late Benazir Bhutto’s son. A four-party coalition has determined who will lead the incoming administration, but the honeymoon will be over shortly after the marriage has been consummated. This will being a serious reality check to a nation besieged by terrorism, chronic energy issues, rising fuel prices, the grounding of national carrier planes, galloping inflation and the rise of the Taliban.

Other threats loom over Pakistan. Ghandi once predicted that four conflicts would haunt the region, following the 1947 partition of India and Pakistan. Three have already come and gone, each engaging a million men or more and accounting for major casualties, especially in Pakistan. Pakistan built up her nuclear capability to match India and now finds herself facing the kinds of internal conflicts that could trigger the last and greatest conflict. Musharraf’s tenuous hold on power is barely keeping the peace in a politically volatile region under threat from fundamentals, who resent India, the US and everyone else, just as Germany once resented the axis powers.

The Taliban, once the popular savior of an Afghanistan reeling from years of Soviet oppression, festered under misguided US foreign policy, to assume power of that country for five years. After Bush’s initiatives against the “axis of evil”, the Taliban declined, but then resurged in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, to become a key link in the emerging East-West, Islamic fundamentalist axis.

Russia is carefully manipulating the axis, using the levers that both unite and inflame Islamic fundamentalism: Anti-Israel and Anti-US sentiment.

The First World War was a dry tinder box waiting for some nut to start a fire, until the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand initiated the chain of events that brought the axis powers to war with Germany. Four years later millions lay dead in military graves across Europe and Germany was manacled by the Versailles treaty. The resulting resentment stirred in German hearts for another 27 years before the world found itself once again at the brink of war. Once again a single, misguided and tactically imprudent act, on the part of the main protagonist, resulted in war: only it was a far more deadly, six year affair.

Now the board is all set up again, with all kinds of forces circling the strategic opportunities prevailing in the middle-east. This leaves us with the question: what nut or foolish incident will light the fire and trigger the domino effect that will bring the world into a terrible meltdown in the Middle-East? My only answer is that, aside from the likes of Ahmadinejad, there are many factors and more than enough crazies capable of starting a conflagration, not the least being the ripeness of the moment.

© Peter Eleazar at http://www.bethelstone.com/

Taliban backlash against US activities

The rise of the Taliban, as an Islamic extremist movement, was largely instigated by US activities.

Russia invaded Afghanistan in 1979 and maintained a repressive occupation of the state for the next nine years. They fought furiously against the Mujahideen, whilst the US poured millions of Dollars of arms into the war-torn region. That was where the stinger missile was battle-proven, as the Mujahideen used it and other US arms so effectively against Russian aircraft and armored gunships.

Russia was finally driven back, leaving Afghanistan in a state of ruin. America’s own objective had been to deter Russia from interfering in US interests in the Middle East, without any real regard for Afghans. President G W Bush tried to balance forces in the region by supplying military and humanitarian aid to both sides of the internal conflict. Besides internecine conflict amongst the Mujahideen, criminal gangs operated in the power vacuum, using the status quo to open up their supply lines into the Middle East.

Unfortunately, Bush was soon to be distracted by other more pressing issues, notably Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and the Iranian revolution. The latter deposed the CIA-backed Shah of Iran, with an extremist order led by the Ayatollah Khomeini. That marked the end of direct US influence over Iran and the start of a long-term standoff that eventually brought Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power. He is a religious politician with dangerously fanatical anti-US and anti-Israel leanings, partly a backlash against years of oppression under the Shah. He is also working hard to equip that country with nuclear weapons, to fulfill his dark ambitions for the destruction of Israel: which of course could significantly advance his personal ambitions.

Back in Afghanistan, conditions deteriorated sharply after Russian withdrawal, until a conservative local Muslim leader, Mullah Omar, decided that enough was enough. He was determined to rid his country of criminals and thugs and the incessant fighting between Mujahideen warlords.

Successful suppression of crime and in-fighting boosted his popularity and brought many Afghans on to his side. This gave impetus to his Sunni/Pashtun nationalist movement, the Taliban, which eventually ruled Afghanistan for five years. Omar provided education and upliftment to his people, but he was also fanatically fundamentalist, partly inspired by the activities of Khomeini just over the border.

Consequently, the Talib or Taliban (which effectively means “disciples”... of Islam), implemented the most extreme interpretations of the Q’uran and Sharia law, bringing great misery to many Afghani’s, especially women. The movement also enjoyed support from the ISI (Pakistan intelligence) and Pakistani president Ul Haq, whilst its ranks were swelled by Pashtuns from western Pakistan. Pakistani support became a breeding ground for Pakistani Taliban fighters and Islamic extremists, the source of current terrorist activities in that country. These factors were largely instrumental in bringing General Pervez Musharraf to power as a pro-US, anti-fundamentalist strongman.

At the time another major player in Mid-East and world affairs, who had successfully targeted US missions and embassies elsewhere, found himself homeless after having been kicked out of Saudi Arabia. Osama bin Laden found solace amongst the Taliban. In the remote hills of Afghanistan, he began plotting his most ambitious attacks against the US, leading to an attack on the world trade centre and the subsequent 911 disaster.

The US retaliated and largely destroyed the Taliban, but they had already become too extensively organized to disappear. They had become a major force in the region and soon regrouped as a dangerous Afgani-Pakistani terrorist grouping that has been responsible for widespread and lethal bombings in both countries.

The Taliban are rising again at a time when Iran and Pakistan are in a state of political flux. Iran is heading towards a dangerous, Russian backed confrontation of the US and Israel, whilst Pakistan struggles with its own internal political problems.

It is not impossible that Pakistan will eject General Musharraf, which would remove the greatest ally the US has in that region in the fight against the Taliban. But even if Musharraf survives, there is a growing risk of a fundamentalist surge in the region that could eventually trigger a meltdown across the region.

The ties between the Taliban and Ahmadinejad’s extremism are obvious and they are encouraging each other to forge a united front against US activities in the Middle East. Pakistan has even reduced its military role in the region because it believes that the Taliban is becoming a significant force.

Russia is pulling strings behind the scenes, eager to hurt the US for the embarrassment they suffered during their unpopular occupation of Afghanistan. But Russia’s objectives exceed mere retribution and her motives for originally invading Afghanistan are still relevant as she seeks to establish a significant strategic foothold in the Middle East. The big difference now is that the pendulum is swinging in their favor whilst the US stumbles and anti-US sentiments give Russia the backing she needs to further her own objectives.

The world stands at the threshold of a staggering crisis, largely initiated by misguided US foreign policy, particularly at the hands of two Bush administrations.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

And I saw a beast arise

I saw a great beast, with ten horns and seven heads, rise from the sea out of its own mortal ruins.

The origins of the European Union trace back to 1951, when the European Iron and Steel community formed an alliance with the founding members of the union.

Later events, such as the Maastricht treaty, introduced new member states, but the UK only joined in 1973 after relaxation of a ban originally determined by Charles de Gaulle.

The original concept of the union was cooperation between member states with a view to creating a new trade bloc. It was not intended to restrict member states from their own trade practices, but to collaborate for mutual benefit.

Over the years the union has elaborated into a sophisticated pan-European organization with common currency and citizenship status across a borderless Europe. Britain’s late entry has left them holding onto their own currency, which has turned out to be a blessing in disguise: it may permanently preclude them from currency integration.

The problem with the EU is that bureaucrats have learnt to harness the beast and manipulate its enormous power. Some of that bureaucratic power is wielded in the most pedantic ways as when UK grocers were recently sued for selling bananas that were either not bent enough or bent too far.

Unfortunately, the union has restricted democracy and member states are being forced to toe the line, leading to a very centrist political context. This is unfortunate, because European farmers are largely inefficient, but Europeans are nonetheless obliged to pay premium prices in a restricted market instead of enjoying the free-market efficiencies of open-trade: which would also help to uplift many poorer countries.

The bible predicts the emergence of a final world power, comprising ten nations rising out of the sea (the nations or peoples) and comprising ten horns and seven heads. It is described in Revelation 14:9-10, the way that a bear symbolizes Russia or an Eagle symbolizes America. Thus it has the body of a leopard, the feet of a bear and the mouth of a lion, suggesting a power that would exceed, yet synthesize, the great empires of Greece (Leopard), Russia (Bear) and Britain (Lion).

The ten nation confederacy may refer to earlier membership of the EU or to the historic national boundaries of Europe. It could also refer to the United Nations, which Prime Minister Gordon Brown hopes to reform, by increasing permanent member status of the Security Council, to ten.

There are other schools of thought about all of this, but my own view is that the final, anti-Christ, one-world government will be European. This is because the vision given to Babylonian King Nebuchadnezzar and interpreted by Daniel, suggested that the ten horns of the final world power would emerge out of the two prongs of ancient Rome. They would consist of iron mixed with clay, reflecting the humanism of the renaissance and the power of Rome (including the successive Holy Roman Empires).

The two great wars of history were contested in Europe, but the current EU model has peacefully co-opted former adversaries into an affiliation that places the great lion, Britain, in the same seat of authority as her traditional enemies: Germany and France. The other key consideration for a European seat of world power is that the Catholic church of Rome, once so totalitarian in its hold over Europe, is the most likely spiritual consort of the emergent world order. The bible refers to the spiritual arm of the new world order as the false prophet, as it will be used to sway the masses and manipulate their support for antichrist. The seven heads of Revelation 14 may refer to the Seven Hills of Rome.

It is no coincidence that the Euro is fast emerging as the world’s next reserve currency as it has continued to out-muscle the Dollar for top-dog status. It is a very powerful currency, vested across a diversified economic base and founded on some of the world’s most powerful economies (Germany, France, UK).

The seat of power at the pinnacle of this awesome beast is already emerging. Tony Blair is vying for election as the first president of Europe. I don’t think he is the antichrist, but he may well have to warm the seat and smooth the way for the ultimate supreme leader. The time for these events is not far off and other world-related prophecies are in an advanced state of fulfillment. Never has the world known such a heady time as this. We are living in the last days of grace facing the imminent return of Christ.

The world is in turmoil. Financial, economic, political, climactic and physical events are now reaching a climax as prophetic events race towards the final showdown on the great plains of Megiddo.

© Peter Eleazar at http://www.bethelstone.com/

The red horse is also coming

Prospects for a major melt-down in the Middle-East have gathered momentum, following recent events.

Israeli Chief of Staff, General Ashkenazi has warned of a coming ordeal in their standoff with Iran, after Iranian leaders upped the ante in ongoing anti-Zionist rhetoric. They have been delivering significant insults to the Jewish state, whilst claiming to only have peaceful nuclear ambitions.

It is worth repeating that the IAEA is concerned that Iran has continued its complex uranium enrichment program, but it could weaponise cumulative stockpiles relatively quickly. In the light of this, Israeli military leaders are planning a quick action against Iran, in the event that the US fails to protect her against the Iranian nuclear threat. The US is currently holding back because of UN opposition and other domestic priorities.

Whilst all this is going on, Syria is undergoing massive rearming, with missile bases that now cover the entire Jewish state. They have also been playing with nuclear options, but seem to be willing to just remain a threat in a conventional way, until better options become available.

Israel’s recent actions against Hamas will have aggravated tensions and spurred Arab nations to increase pressure on the state of Israel, but they are running out of patience and seem more willing than ever to take the fight to Israel. Access to nuclear weapons would significantly strengthen Arab resolve. It is also likely that they would use such weapons given half a chance, so their current posture is a huge threat to Middle East peace.

Russia is now becoming increasingly militant and will resume its may-day parades and other pre-perestroika, anti-western activities, aimed at restoring her military and strategic status in a world that finds itself in very dangerous times. Oil spiked to $109 yesterday, buoyed by Chinese demand for oil, with no end in sight for price rises. Such high prices are fuelling Russia’s military spending and providing them with a strong pretext for Middle-East intervention.

The concerns across the world have now also inspired China to “redouble” efforts at military preparedness, so expect them to significantly increase military spending. They are becoming a dangerous wild-card in a very unstable world.

Any one of the current flashing red-lights could trigger a runaway crisis in the Middle East at a time when the US may be at its weakest: elections and economic depression have eroded her resolve and her enemies seem to have smelt blood.

Of course the US is still committed to its position in the Mid-East, but it doesn’t help that a senior Naval Officer has resigned his Middle-East command due to misgivings about the US stance on the region. It also doesn’t help that US forces are facing major setbacks in security, with increased and ever more devastating bombing campaigns raging in Iraq. Nor does it help that Pakistan may well dethrone its incumbent military strongman at a time when Muslim fundamentalists are increasing their activities within that Nuclear-armed Islamic state.

The red horse of the apocalypse is off to war, bringing retribution to a world so corrupted by its insatiable greed, selfishness, profligacy and cruelty.

© Peter Eleazar at http://www.bethelstone.com/

The pale horse cometh

The pale horse of the apocalypse, is preparing to retaliate against profligate abuse of our planet.

European public health specialists have discovered significant resistance to potential bird flu drug Tamiflu, questioning its ability to treat the disease. Previous studies had indicated much lower resistance, but 13 per cent of H1N1 samples tested had the resistance-conferring mutation. The European Centres for Disease Control insist that the drug could still provide some benefits (source: Financial Times).

This comes at a time when the world’s largest nation, China, is reporting new deaths, whilst nearby Indonesia has now chalked up 100 deaths. This is a virus and thus unresponsive to antibiotics, but of concern is that the only available immune defense, Tamiflu, is no longer viable against avian flu.

The WHO warned that the latest outbreak of bird flu in India is far more serious than previous ones. "More serious risk factors are associated with this current outbreak than previously encountered, including that the affected areas are more widespread and because of proximity to extended border areas," they say (source: Agence France Presse).

This is another significant warning of a disease that is starting to bite. It is reaching levels in some areas that shift it from epidemic to pandemic status. All efforts have been applied to localize and contain outbreaks of Avian flu, but new risk factors indicate that the disease it increasing its footprint and spreading beyond local boundaries quicker than authorities can regulate. When outbreaks occur, preventive measures include the destruction of poultry and other bird stocks. That is okay for non-flying bird species, but action against wild birds will aggravate the contagion and spread it like wild-fire.

In India, chickens are just dropping dead and 400,000 hens have been earmarked for slaughter, but locals have somehow learnt to exploit the situation to buy cheap-meat. That is the surest way to get the disease into human circulation and it exposes 1.1bn Indians to serious risk of a major outbreak, in a heavily over-crowded country with diminished levels of natural immunity.

Although humans are reasonably vulnerably to infection if they come into contact with the virus, the greatest concern is that the virus will mutate into a more transmittable disease. That exposes global health to serious risks.

The disease is still infantile, having only accounted for 235 deaths since first reported, so current levels of indifference are somewhat understandable, but the way that the disease is spreading and forming new gene pools and establishing new vectors for transmission of the disease, is laying foundations for a runaway crisis. Any disease has a doubling period, the time it takes to double its levels of infection. Initially that period could be considerable, but with each generation it will become more resilient and widespread. That will reduce the doubling period until it crosses a threshold or tipping point that would cause it to explode.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com

The red bear is stirring

A few disquieting signals in recent months, suggest that Russia is returning to a cold war posture.

On May 9 this year, tanks will roll through Red Square once again. Six thousand soldiers will march in a show of power, supported by Sukhoi 27 and Mig 29 fighters, missile launchers and other displays of aggression that leave little to the imagination regarding Russia’s strategic intents.

In recent months, Russian bombers have overflown a US aircraft carrier, other aircraft have tested missiles in the Bay of Biscay, the navy has undertaken extensive maritime exercises, Vladimir Putin has effectively contrived to hold onto power an dbrown shirted youth brigades (Nashis) have sweleld to 120,000. The press is being reigned in as Russia switches to a new concept of cold war politics, namely “Sovereign Democracy”, which means the government is democratically sovereign and will not bow to world opinion, verification or local censure.

The Russian military is anything but a spent force, but with billions of new Rubles rolling into the economy off all-time high oil prices and a good few years of significant economic growth, Russia has the resources to reacquire global strategic prominence.

Russia is also flirting with Iran, the one nation that poses the greatest threat to Iraqi and middle-east peace. Peace in that region is a scare and fragile commodity, held together by duct tape and patches. It holds because of finely-tuned power balances, thanks significantly to decades of US intervention that has managed to stabilize an otherwise very dangerous theatre. Had the US not propped up the Shah of Iran back in the day, Soviet expansionism into Afghanistan would have continued unchecked into the rest of the Middle East via an unprotected Iran, a situation that would have bolstered their global influence, by annexing control of strategic oil reserves.

But this time round, Putin seems set on avoiding past errors and the embarrassment of Russia’s forced withdrawal from Afghanistan. They have been currying favor with Iran, supplying nuclear technology and backing the Iranian leadership via the UN.

This has brought Iran to the very brink of nuclear leadership within the Middle East. Once they accumulate enough enriched fuel from their complex and fickle centrifugal processes, it would take months to assemble the relatively achievable hardware needed to weaponise their nuclear stockpile. The highly respected IAEA has signaled a clear warning to the world regarding the imminence of Iran’s aggressive ambitions, echoed by Israeli intelligence reports that suggest that it is almost too late to act.

Clearly there are very dangerous things happening in the most troubled regions at the centre of the earth, but these are just curtain raisers for the great convergence of world powers that is predicted by the bible. Armageddon is not far away and other world crises are fanning the flames that will result in the greatest conflagration in history, including: global economic uncertainty, US elections, the rise of Europe, UN realignment as the vanguard of the new world order, rising levels of anti-Semitism in Europe and a decline in value of the world’s reserve currency, the Dollar.

Is this not a time to settle outstanding accounts and set your house in order? God is a fearsome judge, but He is almost shouting His warnings to an otherwise nonchalant world community. We have brought the global climate to a critical level, serious pandemics are waiting in the wings and world-class conflicts are simmering at centre stage. Is it not time to take the warnings of the bible seriously and to act, in the words of Israeli intelligence, before it is too late.

(c) Peter Eleazar at http://www.bethelstone.com/

What bomb?

Iran has little intention of backing down on its nuclear program - it may be worse than we thought.

We know that Russia and China are gladly siding with Iran. Russia is also providing them with enriched fuel. On the eve of Russian elections, other concerns about Russia’s posture are also emerging.

Russia seems to be shifting towards a cold war stance, whilst duping the Russian electorate into giving Putin an extended mandate. So the worrisome alliance with Iraq is not just an inconvenience: it has serious implications for global peace.

But, if that is worrying so is the fact that Germany, France and Britain are sitting on the fence about the imposition of sanctions, partly because of their own credit exposures. This notwithstanding Israeli and US concerns about Iran’s position and the intractability of their leader.

The UN was reliably advised, by the US intelligence community, that Iran stopped its weapons program in 2003. But now it seems that this was a clever smoke screen. The really tough part of a weapons program is the enrichment process, which uses hundreds of temperamental, high speed centrifuges to yield small quantities of enriched product.

The easy part of bomb making comes after the enrichment cycle and can be concluded within months. So it may no difference to Iran’s timetable to delay its bomb making activities until it had accumulated sufficient enriched fuel reserves.

Now the highly credible International Atomic Energy Agency has voiced concerns about suspicious activities relating to uranium conversion, the design and testing of nuclear warheads and delivery systems and the manufacture of high-explosive detonators for use in warheads. It seems that Iran has just been stringing the world along and that US and Israeli concerns were valid. But, as Israel recently observed, it is almost too late to act for once Iran is armed, action against them will be that more challenging. This situation is not far from reaching a critical tipping point.

In the midst of these dangerous developments, Israel is also gearing up for a full scale war against the Palestinians in Gaza. The ordinance flying over the border is now reaching serious levels, so Israeli action is imminent. This could put Israel on a collision course with the Islamic world that, once started, would be hard to stop short of using the moment to defuse the growing threat to the east.

Recent history suggests that Israel is very calculated in her military initiatives, largely because of world censure. As such they tend to try and do as much as possible within a very limited window of opportunity. Typically, they would have to conclude their operations within two to three weeks and then withdraw, but without the embarrassment of recent campaigns that fizzled into awkward stalemates where the enemy was neither routed nor dissuaded from its ongoing missile attacks against Israel.

These developments are curtain raisers for what could lead to a serious chain reaction in middle-east affairs. Russia is waiting for a pretext to engage the region, which might well come in the form of a military threat to their stake in Iran. This could come at a time when the US is in a state of flux due to domestic distractions. Three US warships have been moved toward the Israeli coast to monitor rising tensions between Israel and Gaza, but that might just be a pretext to lend some legitimacy to Israeli actions.

This is a really tough time for Israel as she is threatened on every flank by forces that have clearly declared their intention of crushing the Jewish state. That threat has hung of the Promised Land for decades, but now there are new and deeply disturbing threats emerging that limit peaceful options. Timing is critical if Israel wants to prevent a shift in the fine balance of power that keeps the middle-East from tearing apart.

Israel cannot afford to lose even a single war without exposing its population to genocide and its nationhood to politicide. Wars waged against Israel are wars of extermination that target its cities and population centers. Its enemies are seeking its total destruction ~ Alan Dershowitz.

(c) Peter Eleazar at www.bethelstone.com